200-EMA tests AUDUSD bulls as Fed-NFP week begins

29 Apr

AUDUSD remains on the front foot at the highest level in nearly a fortnight, after jumping the most on a week since December 2023, during the early hours of the key week comprising the monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US monthly employment report. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair justifies the upside break of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bullish MACD signals, and upbeat RSI (14) conditions. Given the US Dollar’s preparations for top-tier data/events, coupled with the bullish technical details, the Aussie pair is likely to overcome the immediate upside hurdle, namely the 200-EMA level surrounding 0.6570. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 at the latest, will precede a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone of 0.6640-50 to challenge the bulls.

Meanwhile, AUDUSD sellers remain off the table unless the quote stays beyond the 100-EMA immediate support of 0.6542. Even if the quote slips beneath the nearly EMA support, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October-December upside, close to 0.6500, and February’s low of 0.6442 will stop the bears from taking control. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6442, the yearly low marked on April 19 around 0.6360 will be in the spotlight.

Overall, the AUDUSD pair gains upside traction ahead of the key US catalysts but the bulls should remain cautious beneath 0.6650.