(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s early rally has, as you can see, landed monthly flow within the parapets of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Elevated on the back of upbeat risk sentiment, price action addressed resistance at 0.6931 yesterday, wrapping up the day off best levels at 0.6982, a touch under supply at 0.7032/0.6992.
Dips from current structure may see buyers and sellers butt heads at support from 0.6755, sited just ahead of the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6657.
It may also be worth acknowledging the RSI oscillator stepped foot in overbought terrain.
H4 timeframe:
Early trade Wednesday brought in supply from 0.7003/0.6983, pressuring the pair towards demand at 0.6827/0.6858 (prior supply) heading into the US session. Both areas remain on the hit list today, though it may be worth pencilling in demand posted at 0.6773/0.6814, an area covering ground under current demand.
H1 timeframe:
The Aussie dollar dipped a toe into sell-stop liquidity under 0.69 against the US dollar Wednesday, with buyers making their debut off demand at 0.6841/0.6867 (holds 0.6850) and reclaiming 0.69+ status by the day’s end. Additional bullish sentiment today may lean towards the widely watched round number 0.70.
Structures of Interest:
With monthly trendline resistance in motion, intersecting with monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664, sellers are tipped to weigh on upside momentum.
0.70 on the H1 timeframe appeals as notable resistance, holding within the walls of daily supply at 0.7032/0.6992 and also H4 supply at 0.7003/0.6983.
Alternatively, intraday buyers may find use in 0.69 as support today, albeit open to a possible whipsaw back into H1 demand at 0.6841/0.6867.
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