After running stops above 0.66 sellers may have the upper hand
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remains a fixture on this timeframe, though faces strong buying at the moment, threatening the possibility of a breach to nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. Traders may also include the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6659.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recent analysis highlighted a falling wedge formed between 0.6561/0.6432, on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Monday had the candles penetrate the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern, with Tuesday and Wednesday extending upside and crossing paths with the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), at 0.6595.
Thanks to recent buying, supply at 0.6695/0.6664 is also now on the hit list.
H1 timeframe:
Upside lifted the H1 candles into orders at 0.66 Wednesday, likely running buy-stops upon testing highs at 0.6616, a move which missed supply at 0.6647/0.6622 by a hair.
A pullback from 0.66 may collide with trendline support (0.6411), with a break unmasking the 0.6550 base.
What’s also notable is the RSI indicator recently produced bearish divergence.
Structures of Interest:
The run of stops above 0.66 may have provided sufficient fuel for intraday sellers to push lower as we enter the more liquid sessions today. Reducing risk to breakeven at H1 trend line support is an idea, with a take-profit target set at 0.6550.
Longer term, daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 appears to be holding on by a thread, unlocking the possibility of bringing in nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642 and 200-day simple moving average at 0.6659, a dynamic value essentially connecting with the underside of monthly supply at 0.6664.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Supply at 0.6618/0.6544 remains a fixture on this timeframe, though faces strong buying at the moment, threatening the possibility of a breach to nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. Traders may also include the 200-day simple moving average seen around 0.6659.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recent analysis highlighted a falling wedge formed between 0.6561/0.6432, on approach to demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Monday had the candles penetrate the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern, with Tuesday and Wednesday extending upside and crossing paths with the falling wedge take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this value to the breakout point (yellow), at 0.6595.
Thanks to recent buying, supply at 0.6695/0.6664 is also now on the hit list.
H1 timeframe:
Upside lifted the H1 candles into orders at 0.66 Wednesday, likely running buy-stops upon testing highs at 0.6616, a move which missed supply at 0.6647/0.6622 by a hair.
A pullback from 0.66 may collide with trendline support (0.6411), with a break unmasking the 0.6550 base.
What’s also notable is the RSI indicator recently produced bearish divergence.
Structures of Interest:
The run of stops above 0.66 may have provided sufficient fuel for intraday sellers to push lower as we enter the more liquid sessions today. Reducing risk to breakeven at H1 trend line support is an idea, with a take-profit target set at 0.6550.
Longer term, daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 appears to be holding on by a thread, unlocking the possibility of bringing in nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642 and 200-day simple moving average at 0.6659, a dynamic value essentially connecting with the underside of monthly supply at 0.6664.
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