A few words about how I see the current market:
Powell's comments have led to what I believe is a short-term regime shift from QT to perceived-pseudo-QE (which isn't really QE but a lot less QT).
The whole macro picture is still so weak that I find it really hard to write down: we're in a reflation trade now. I don't know how long it will last, but my guess is: until we get a sense how the September FOMC meeting might play out.
The ECB has ditched forward guidance, now the Fed has followed suit. Central bank speakers and economic data will have much more impact when trading, creating more whipsaws and more small-timeframe volatility. (Thankfully you're reading a newsletter that has that covered.)
Strong opinions, weakly held. Being nimble. Trading the market, not expectations. That's going to be even more essential for the coming weeks.
Powell's comments have led to what I believe is a short-term regime shift from QT to perceived-pseudo-QE (which isn't really QE but a lot less QT).
The whole macro picture is still so weak that I find it really hard to write down: we're in a reflation trade now. I don't know how long it will last, but my guess is: until we get a sense how the September FOMC meeting might play out.
The ECB has ditched forward guidance, now the Fed has followed suit. Central bank speakers and economic data will have much more impact when trading, creating more whipsaws and more small-timeframe volatility. (Thankfully you're reading a newsletter that has that covered.)
Strong opinions, weakly held. Being nimble. Trading the market, not expectations. That's going to be even more essential for the coming weeks.