AUD/USD:Traders Eye Australian Retail Sales and CPI Data

The AUD/USD pair saw upward movement on Monday, benefiting from the subdued activity in the US markets due to the Memorial Day holiday, which left the Greenback weaker. This rise extends Friday’s recovery into a second consecutive day, providing some momentum for the Aussie dollar.

Economic Indicators to Watch

Australian Retail Sales and CPI Data:

Tuesday: Traders are eyeing the Australian Retail Sales data for April, expected to show a modest recovery with a 0.2% increase following a 0.4% decline in the previous month.
Wednesday: The focus will shift to Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, anticipated to grow at 3.4% year-over-year, slightly down from March's annualized 3.5%.

US PCE Inflation Data:

Later in the week, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data will be closely watched, as it could provide further direction for the USD and consequently impact the AUD/USD pair.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD is approaching a critical resistance area:

The price is nearing the 61.8% retracement level from the recent daily swing high.
Additionally, it is within the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone from a more localized swing.
This convergence area is a potential point of resistance, where sellers might step in, looking for a bearish retracement. The market inefficiency noted earlier still remains unclosed, suggesting a potential downward correction.

Trading Outlook
Given the current economic outlook and technical indicators, we anticipate a bearish retracement in the AUD/USD pair:

Bearish Setup: The 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone could serve as an ideal entry point for sellers.

Target: The objective would be to capitalize on the market's inefficiencies and the expected retracement back towards lower levels.

In summary, while the AUD/USD pair has found some upward momentum, economic data releases and technical resistance levels suggest that a bearish retracement may be on the horizon. Traders should watch for key data points and technical signals to confirm this potential move.

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