AUDNZD: Are Buyers Ready to Give Up 1.0765?
The AUDNZD is currently trading at levels last seen on March 3rd. That was the session that broke the 1.0765 handle, a level that had capped four separate advances since May of last year.
Today’s intraday breakdown comes on the heels of more dovish than expected meeting minutes from the RBA. The relative strength of the New Zealand dollar over the past five sessions certainly isn’t helping the case for a bullish AUDNZD either.
However, I want to stress that today’s break of 1.0765 has yet to be confirmed. In other words, until the session closes at 5 pm EST, there’s too much ambiguity to call this one way or the other.
As always, the market will make the final decision. I would, however, be surprised if buyers give up the 1.0765 handle so quickly. This is a level that held as resistance for ten straight months, so to give it up as new support would be a bit of a surprise and a clear sign of weakness.
But for now, the fate of this potential bull flag pattern is unclear. And given the recent breakdown on the Australian dollar, it will likely take a weaker kiwi for the pair to recover above 1.0765 before today’s close.
If buyers succeed, it will still take a break above channel resistance near 1.0860/70 to confirm the continuation pattern. Above that, the pair would have about 400 pips to run, which is why I’m still interested to see what happens over the coming sessions.
Today’s intraday breakdown comes on the heels of more dovish than expected meeting minutes from the RBA. The relative strength of the New Zealand dollar over the past five sessions certainly isn’t helping the case for a bullish AUDNZD either.
However, I want to stress that today’s break of 1.0765 has yet to be confirmed. In other words, until the session closes at 5 pm EST, there’s too much ambiguity to call this one way or the other.
As always, the market will make the final decision. I would, however, be surprised if buyers give up the 1.0765 handle so quickly. This is a level that held as resistance for ten straight months, so to give it up as new support would be a bit of a surprise and a clear sign of weakness.
But for now, the fate of this potential bull flag pattern is unclear. And given the recent breakdown on the Australian dollar, it will likely take a weaker kiwi for the pair to recover above 1.0765 before today’s close.
If buyers succeed, it will still take a break above channel resistance near 1.0860/70 to confirm the continuation pattern. Above that, the pair would have about 400 pips to run, which is why I’m still interested to see what happens over the coming sessions.
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