AUD JPY - Awaiting selling imbalance
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral to Bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances up to specific areas of interest. After this, risk becomes a highly probable scenario of invalid trades and losses.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Do not exceed risk from buying at the tops of structures.
Master Key for zones
Weekly, the featured focus
Looking left to 2008, what is shown?
See below for the formation of the multiple tests of the imbalance formation and consolidation upon a retest of the imbalance [double bottom] - where, two tests of a marginal wick test almost nets or equal to the previous low.
Whilst upon the consolidation zone built across a four month trading range, notice a clear rejection and following a four consecutive higher low formation.
Monthly Below
The monthly imbalances have been set with a clear pathway for the change of hands upon the lower imbalance [buy zone], where price had completed the pattern in the inverse Fibonacci sequence upon the monthly [1].
From how the formation setup, the clear opportunity to sell created the swing high and swing low on the monthly wicks.
Price had developed the following;
[1] - Fibonacci Inverse extension had created a correctional pullback to the 50.0% but the importance here for this part of the trade offers a clue that price began to struggle to inch higher.
The two previous bearish wick closes (before price tested the 50% zone), showed a breakout wave which allowed the range to create an engulfing pattern to falsely generate and mislead buyers.
The net imbalance is highlighted above where price closed out on the candle body close, which means price has successfully closed out all buyers.
The buying imbalance from the monthly zone at the swing low has been clear rejections upon the weekly chart [refer above], with the closing of the monthly wick, and the new formation of the an inside imbalance formed has indicated a clear long opportunity. From a weekly perspective - this now counts as the imbalance swing low.
Back to the monthly, the pattern completed as above, now shows with this formed low, price will now look to change of hands upon the imbalance of sellers as opposed to buyers.
Awaiting confirmations at the pivot point between the -0.27,-0.618 had allowed the opportunity to confirm and form. Looking at the historical patterns the chart has formed back in 2008, the previous imbalance origin, price had closed within the 50% body of the imbalance formation, showing a clear test and rejection >95% confidence of a bullish reversal.
Daily Imbalance
Price has made a new top above the previous structure "0" based on the supply imbalance upon the weekly.
To show this, revert to the below chart which shows a double top formation and a break of the trend named [2]
[2] This indicates that the buyers created a new fresh zone, which immediately is tested and corrects, knowing that imbalances have a confidence level of >95% to retest before correcting further to a Fibonacci pivot structure.
From the top, a hedging trade 'sell opportunity was presented' and the sell wave began before a buying imbalance were to form [using the weekly and monthly levels] as indicated above. Buys only were formed from this zone.
The daily also presents the opportunity for a reversal as the inverse Fibonacci shows a take profit pivot upon the 82.2X zone at -0.27, but this is a crucial buying pivot upon the monthly at -0.27 whereby buyers will continue to add to the discounted price.
Daily chart based on the pip range to expect for longs to swing trades on.
Pathway
In this scenario, looking for long opportunities from the imbalance based of the Fibonacci pivot and also the key driver - where the four day chart provides a double wick close at the same level (82.24) showing that the zone is highly probable of a liquidity zone (imbalance of buyers to sellers ratio) upon a rejection will indicate buy triggers.
Cross-Asset:
Review USD JPY chart and analysis;
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/16ayBXfy-USD-JPY-let-s-ride-the-rollercoaster/
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral to Bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances up to specific areas of interest. After this, risk becomes a highly probable scenario of invalid trades and losses.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Do not exceed risk from buying at the tops of structures.
Master Key for zones
- Red = Three Month
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Scarlet [Red] - Four day
- Orange = Daily
- Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Weekly, the featured focus
Looking left to 2008, what is shown?
See below for the formation of the multiple tests of the imbalance formation and consolidation upon a retest of the imbalance [double bottom] - where, two tests of a marginal wick test almost nets or equal to the previous low.
Whilst upon the consolidation zone built across a four month trading range, notice a clear rejection and following a four consecutive higher low formation.
Monthly Below
The monthly imbalances have been set with a clear pathway for the change of hands upon the lower imbalance [buy zone], where price had completed the pattern in the inverse Fibonacci sequence upon the monthly [1].
From how the formation setup, the clear opportunity to sell created the swing high and swing low on the monthly wicks.
Price had developed the following;
[1] - Fibonacci Inverse extension had created a correctional pullback to the 50.0% but the importance here for this part of the trade offers a clue that price began to struggle to inch higher.
The two previous bearish wick closes (before price tested the 50% zone), showed a breakout wave which allowed the range to create an engulfing pattern to falsely generate and mislead buyers.
The net imbalance is highlighted above where price closed out on the candle body close, which means price has successfully closed out all buyers.
The buying imbalance from the monthly zone at the swing low has been clear rejections upon the weekly chart [refer above], with the closing of the monthly wick, and the new formation of the an inside imbalance formed has indicated a clear long opportunity. From a weekly perspective - this now counts as the imbalance swing low.
Back to the monthly, the pattern completed as above, now shows with this formed low, price will now look to change of hands upon the imbalance of sellers as opposed to buyers.
Awaiting confirmations at the pivot point between the -0.27,-0.618 had allowed the opportunity to confirm and form. Looking at the historical patterns the chart has formed back in 2008, the previous imbalance origin, price had closed within the 50% body of the imbalance formation, showing a clear test and rejection >95% confidence of a bullish reversal.
Daily Imbalance
Price has made a new top above the previous structure "0" based on the supply imbalance upon the weekly.
To show this, revert to the below chart which shows a double top formation and a break of the trend named [2]
[2] This indicates that the buyers created a new fresh zone, which immediately is tested and corrects, knowing that imbalances have a confidence level of >95% to retest before correcting further to a Fibonacci pivot structure.
From the top, a hedging trade 'sell opportunity was presented' and the sell wave began before a buying imbalance were to form [using the weekly and monthly levels] as indicated above. Buys only were formed from this zone.
The daily also presents the opportunity for a reversal as the inverse Fibonacci shows a take profit pivot upon the 82.2X zone at -0.27, but this is a crucial buying pivot upon the monthly at -0.27 whereby buyers will continue to add to the discounted price.
Daily chart based on the pip range to expect for longs to swing trades on.
Pathway
In this scenario, looking for long opportunities from the imbalance based of the Fibonacci pivot and also the key driver - where the four day chart provides a double wick close at the same level (82.24) showing that the zone is highly probable of a liquidity zone (imbalance of buyers to sellers ratio) upon a rejection will indicate buy triggers.
Cross-Asset:
Review USD JPY chart and analysis;
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/16ayBXfy-USD-JPY-let-s-ride-the-rollercoaster/
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
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