AUD/JPY on medium bullish trend but caution for next week
The pair was the biggest gainer for last week. AUD/JPY managed to consolidate above the key resistance 80.00 handle, clearing the path to further upswings. The rally continued and reached as high as 84.61 on friday, the highest level not seen since April. It pulled back afterward and ended the week hovering around 84.00 level.
The Aussie has been able to stay above 82.00/50, another key resistance. The next medium-term resistance could be seen between the 86.00 - 86.50 area, that stubbornly capped the surge during the first and second quarter of 2016.
The rally might take breather soon before any upswing as it has surged close to 800 pips for a considerable short time.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Aussie has been able to stay above 82.00/50, another key resistance. The next medium-term resistance could be seen between the 86.00 - 86.50 area, that stubbornly capped the surge during the first and second quarter of 2016.
The rally might take breather soon before any upswing as it has surged close to 800 pips for a considerable short time.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
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Fundamental Updates.
The Central Bank Faces Difficulties In Beating Deflation As Well As A Stagnant Growth. The race to the bottom (currency war) is the theme for all central bansk now.
.......
BOJ's new policy framework working smoothly for now
BOJ's new policy framework enhanced policy flexibility, sustainability
BOJ will continue to buy huge amounts of JGBs to control interest rates
No change to BOJ's stance of continuing with monetary easing via interest rate, quantity of asset buying
No magic wand to emerge from low inflation, low growth plaguing Japan's economy
BOJ will strive to keep prices stable but govt, private sector must also play role to boost japan's growth
Hard to eradicate uncertainties on global economy in short term
Details on new US administration's policies unknown so need to watch developments cautiously
Global economy gradually moving toward recovery phase but high uncertainty remains on outlook
Looking at next year's wage negotiations with great interest to gauge outlook on price moves
Headlines via Reuters
*Pending any events on the Aussie side, the upward is steep and AUDJPY is exposed to possible profit taking. Furthermore, OPEC deal will force traders to reposition their portfolio. With expected higher oil price coming 2017 (this any other argument point subject to US and Canada shale output), this will affects net importers, Japan is the world 3rd oil buyer. With lower Yen, next yearcould be challenging for Japan. But that's their macro problem. We just wanna know whatwill be their next move.
Lets see if these 2 days if price could be push even higher. Possible a slower trend coming friday.
Just my personal shallow thought
The Central Bank Faces Difficulties In Beating Deflation As Well As A Stagnant Growth. The race to the bottom (currency war) is the theme for all central bansk now.
.......
BOJ's new policy framework working smoothly for now
BOJ's new policy framework enhanced policy flexibility, sustainability
BOJ will continue to buy huge amounts of JGBs to control interest rates
No change to BOJ's stance of continuing with monetary easing via interest rate, quantity of asset buying
No magic wand to emerge from low inflation, low growth plaguing Japan's economy
BOJ will strive to keep prices stable but govt, private sector must also play role to boost japan's growth
Hard to eradicate uncertainties on global economy in short term
Details on new US administration's policies unknown so need to watch developments cautiously
Global economy gradually moving toward recovery phase but high uncertainty remains on outlook
Looking at next year's wage negotiations with great interest to gauge outlook on price moves
Headlines via Reuters
*Pending any events on the Aussie side, the upward is steep and AUDJPY is exposed to possible profit taking. Furthermore, OPEC deal will force traders to reposition their portfolio. With expected higher oil price coming 2017 (this any other argument point subject to US and Canada shale output), this will affects net importers, Japan is the world 3rd oil buyer. With lower Yen, next yearcould be challenging for Japan. But that's their macro problem. We just wanna know whatwill be their next move.
Lets see if these 2 days if price could be push even higher. Possible a slower trend coming friday.
Just my personal shallow thought
With spot at 83.33 currently, AUD/JPY is trading below the 20 sma on the 4hr sticks at 83.52. The bearish bias points towards a test below the figure at 82.90 and recent lows as first support below 82.58/40. 81.95. 81.00 is the last defence of this recent 20th Nov bullish rally en route to 85.60 recent highs with 86.65 late March highs thereafter. fxstreet/taderchain.