Incoming 60% correction for ASML Holding

22 Okt

On the above weekly chart price action has seen a strong 200% upward move since 2022. No doubt a move in part caused by the AI mania.

Is now a good time to buy?

Seeking alpha says “Buy the dip”

“ASML has returned to growth after revenue declines, with flat revenue expected for 2024 and growth anticipated in 2025, driven by new EUV tools.”

“Despite a 53% QoQ drop in net bookings, ASML's backlog remains strong at €36B, supporting a revised 2025 revenue outlook of €30-35B.”

A quick Google leads to no shortage of “buy the dip” articles. But then again, Google is not what it once was, with many paid for bias articles are evident.

The best News and outlook will always be the chart.
On the above weekly chart:

1) Price action and RSI support failures.

2) Broken market structure.

3) Look left, support and resistance, red arrows. The 2021 market top confirms resistance in October 2024. This is a significant warning.

4) The bear flag. It is has not yet confirmed, but a breakout is evident. A back test would be ideal, towards $800 area. The flag forecasts a 60% correction to support.

Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

Type: trade, short from $800

31 Okt

Catatan

Trade is active should the month close at current levels.
Current price action is a confirmed break of market structure.

6 Nov

Trade aktif

The monthly chart per last comment closed under market structure.
Expect a minimum 30% correction in the weeks and months ahead.
In the grander picture a collapsed under $400 is forecast.

16 Nov

Catatan

Watch for a bounce at the 600 area when it arrives, temporary support, before the downtrend continues.

1 Des

Catatan

Bear flag confirmed on monthly.
Strong bearish divergence.
Whomever sold Long Put options at the time of this publication is probably sweating bricks by now.