2/6/25 - $amzn - Buying eps tn

6 Feb

2/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: AMZN
Buying eps tn

- will keep it short
- consumer stuff is flying from 4Q binge
- META, even SNAP good ad #s should support healthy AMZN consumer biz
- GOOGL, MSFT cloud were flies... but honestly, AMZN is the gorilla. could we see similar thing? I'd say 50/50 tbh. if anything seeing those others weaker tells me maybe 60/40 better/worse, so i'll punt
- i'm also short the Q's so IF there's a sell off, AMZN miss could be a trigger. and if Q's r up tmr say another 50 to 100 bps, probability is that AMZ is helping drive this factor - so it's a hedge to my hedge
- feeling a bit more emboldened seeing UBER rally back, took a bit of my LT adds from y'day off the table and now back to a comfy 20% portfolio size to weather whatever comes next, higher or lower - i love positioning to a point where i am indifferent to the move tmr.
- 40% cash, highest it's been in a while
- stuff simply looks... sus. but sus can be sus for some time. so i'll play some prints here and there. tonight i am long amzn.

anon?

V

7 Feb

Catatan

f'n cloud, at least PINS as pure consumer beat. that's really the trend for remainder of EPS season. just avoid the enterprise exposed stuff, all else equal. even consumer is cooked, but might be worth the flex.

honestly. idk how all the B2B stuff holds up w/ many >10x sales. msft, googl, amzn cloud misses... glta

V