AMZN _ will it fill the gaps

3 Nov 2011

Greetings: Whenever I find any pattern that seems to repeat itself too many times, that is when I get suspicious and begin to imagine that the market will do something different. What I see here in AMZN is a continuous pattern of "FALSE BREAKS" of previous reaction lows which makes traders think that every break is a buying opportunity. AMZN just had such a break when it reported earnings recently. When respected fundamental analysts think that AMZN is 50% or more overvalued and when technically-based traders are long and hoping for a pre-holiday rally to unload their shares, then this is the setup for a great trade. The Kindle Reader and the jockeying for Black Friday sales haven't done anything for the stock. Lastly, I looked and found gaps on the chart which, if filled, provide a huge risk/reward trade. For now, target the last 3 months trading range of 60 points down from current prices. Risk 24 points.