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ADBE Earnings Play โ€“ Moderately Bullish into AMC (2025-06-11)

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๐Ÿ“ˆ ADBE Earnings Play โ€“ Moderately Bullish into AMC (2025-06-11)
Ticker: ADBE (Adobe Inc.)
Event: Earnings Report โ€” ๐Ÿ—“ June 12, After Market Close
Bias: โœ… Moderately Bullish | Confidence: 72%
Strategy: Single-leg Call | Expiry: June 13, 2025

๐Ÿ” Market & Options Snapshot
โ€ข Price: ~$416.06
โ€ข Historical Move: ~6.5% avg. post-earnings (5 of 8 quarters up)
โ€ข IV Rank: 0.75 โ€” Elevated, with expected 25โ€“30% crush post-release
โ€ข Narrative Drivers: AI/Creative segment strength, positive analyst sentiment
โ€ข Max Pain: $400 (below current price, but overshadowed by bullish catalysts)

๐Ÿง  AI Model Consensus
โœ… Bullish Bias (3/4 Models):

Grok/xAI & Llama/Meta: Favor the $420 Call (ask $12.65) for a balanced risk/reward

Gemini/Google: Also bullish, suggests call spread but agrees $420 Call is viable

โš ๏ธ Contrarian (1/4 โ€“ DeepSeek):

Flags overbought RSI & IV crush risk

Proposes a deep-OTM $472.50 Call for asymmetric upside (lower conviction)

โœ… Recommended Trade Setup
๐ŸŽฏ Direction: CALL

๐Ÿ“ Strike: $420

๐Ÿ“… Expiry: 2025-06-13 (weekly after earnings)

๐Ÿ’ต Entry Price: $12.65

๐ŸŽฏ Profit Target: $15.00 (+19%)

๐Ÿ›‘ Stop Loss: $10.00 (โ€“21%)

๐Ÿ“ˆ Confidence: 72%

โฐ Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close

๐Ÿ“ Size: 2 contracts (โ‰ˆ2% portfolio risk)

โš ๏ธ Key Risks
IV Crush: If the move disappoints, premium may collapse

Overbought RSI: Short-term pullback risk pre-release

Negative Surprise: Weak guidance could send stock lower

Volatility Whipsaws: Earnings reactions can be choppyโ€”use disciplined stops


๐Ÿ’ฌ Are you playing Adobe this quarter? Calls or skips? Drop your strategy below!

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