ADAUSD Basic Short Term Trend Analysis
Diupdate
Important things to note:
A bullish trend is confirmed after 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows
A bearish trend is confirmed after 2 lower highs and 2 lower lows
Price movements must retrace between 30%-60% to be considered
Any retracement outside of that range will be ignored
A trend is considered "in play" until the confirmation of an opposite trend.
OFF TOPIC - BTC looks like it has formed a bullish pennant to me. It is my opinion that it will consolidate before a move.
Important Dates to Take Note of:
ADA Alonzo (smart contracts) go live Sep 12 2021
ADA Summit Sep 25-26 2021
So right now volume is fairly low so the bulls and the bears are trying to take this opportunity move the price since it is so weak. If you take a look at the ADA 1D, you will not see much because there hasn't been enough days to produce anything worthwhile, the same goes for all of the other longer timeframes. You can consider all of the trends in the larger timeframe being an uptrend. So, we will take a look at the 1H timeframe and I have changed it to a line graph to make it easier to see what I am talking about. At this moment we have a very short term uptrend which was confirmed by 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows. We had one retracement of about 90% which invalidates the movement. ADA will be considered to be in a very short term uptrend until we see a confirmation of a downtrend, it is that simple. The same can be said about a downtrend. Now I know people that use 1 higher high and 1 higher low and vice versa for downtrends, however I follow the traditional form of technical analysis which consists of a signal and then confirmation. Since this is a very short term trend and the fact that there are higher levels of volatility, you can assume this trend will go back and fourth with plenty of invalid retracements. So, now that you know how it works, you can take a look for yourself and follow along. Keep in mind, I believe there is a strong basing pattern which was formed and a quite a bit of consolidation so despite the fact that everyone has a doomsday scenario for ADA and the market in general, I am not convinced at the moment. I really hope this helps you understand how trends work and how to identify them so you are not caught off guard. Like I have said before, trends flip, and sentiment changes very quickly, hopefully this helps you keep up with the changes. I should also note that each trend at a larger timeframe is more powerful than a smaller one. Therefore, if your secular trend, primary trend, intermediate trend, short term trend is considered an uptrend, and the very short term trend is considered a downtrend, the bearish momentum will be very less impactful. It would be like a fish trying to swim upstream. I will continue to keep an eye on ADA and update you on the movements.
Also, it is worth mentioning that TradingView has reached out to me and offered me very kind words, and showed me some support. I thought that was very nice of them and it was very unexpected. Though, I never planned for any of this to happen at all. I was constantly making charts for myself and my friends and some of them suggested I post them publicly. I never imagined any of this would happen, if I did, I would have waited until I had a bit more free time LOL. However, it makes me really happy to know that people are learning from my charts and hopefully it will encourage you all to learn technical analysis for yourselves! In a couple weeks I will have more time to make the educational content you have been asking for, and I will likely chart a wide spectrum of assets. Thank you again for all of the support, it means more to me than you know!
Now for some good news. As a person who follows ADA closely, I know that the adoption of the platform will happen very quickly with the release of smart contracts on the 12th of September. In fact, I think it was built with such a great foundation, I might just do an entire post on the fundamentals of Cardano sometime in the future. Pretty soon, we will see NFTs being created, DeFi, applications being developed, and overall strong adoption of the ADA blockchain platform as a whole. If there will be any immediate reason for ADA to move higher, it will likely be news coming from the summit on the 25-26 of September. So I would keep an eye on their twitter accounts around that time.
Again, I apologize for having less time to post at the moment, but that will change in a couple weeks.
I am going to make a video soon teaching everyone my approach to charting. I will cover the entire workflow process I go through. I hope you enjoy it.
Tell me what you think?
This is not financial advice. DYODD.
Note!!!!!!!
Please do not post my charts on other people's posts in order to say they are wrong. People have different opinions and different takes on technical analysis and that is ok. For example, I do not use a lot of technical indicators for crypto, I focus on patterning, trends, and candles. There is no right or wrong way to do this. I have studied it all and I have my own style. I just know what works for me. That being said, I do not want upset analysts coming to my page because someone posted my chart on their page saying they are wrong. I understand why that would bother them, because I would not like it either. Therefore, please refrain from doing so, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and no one is right 100% of the time. If you are not learning everyday you are not growing and that includes me as well. Please respect other analysts with the same respect you show me. Thanks again everyone!
A bullish trend is confirmed after 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows
A bearish trend is confirmed after 2 lower highs and 2 lower lows
Price movements must retrace between 30%-60% to be considered
Any retracement outside of that range will be ignored
A trend is considered "in play" until the confirmation of an opposite trend.
OFF TOPIC - BTC looks like it has formed a bullish pennant to me. It is my opinion that it will consolidate before a move.
Important Dates to Take Note of:
ADA Alonzo (smart contracts) go live Sep 12 2021
ADA Summit Sep 25-26 2021
So right now volume is fairly low so the bulls and the bears are trying to take this opportunity move the price since it is so weak. If you take a look at the ADA 1D, you will not see much because there hasn't been enough days to produce anything worthwhile, the same goes for all of the other longer timeframes. You can consider all of the trends in the larger timeframe being an uptrend. So, we will take a look at the 1H timeframe and I have changed it to a line graph to make it easier to see what I am talking about. At this moment we have a very short term uptrend which was confirmed by 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows. We had one retracement of about 90% which invalidates the movement. ADA will be considered to be in a very short term uptrend until we see a confirmation of a downtrend, it is that simple. The same can be said about a downtrend. Now I know people that use 1 higher high and 1 higher low and vice versa for downtrends, however I follow the traditional form of technical analysis which consists of a signal and then confirmation. Since this is a very short term trend and the fact that there are higher levels of volatility, you can assume this trend will go back and fourth with plenty of invalid retracements. So, now that you know how it works, you can take a look for yourself and follow along. Keep in mind, I believe there is a strong basing pattern which was formed and a quite a bit of consolidation so despite the fact that everyone has a doomsday scenario for ADA and the market in general, I am not convinced at the moment. I really hope this helps you understand how trends work and how to identify them so you are not caught off guard. Like I have said before, trends flip, and sentiment changes very quickly, hopefully this helps you keep up with the changes. I should also note that each trend at a larger timeframe is more powerful than a smaller one. Therefore, if your secular trend, primary trend, intermediate trend, short term trend is considered an uptrend, and the very short term trend is considered a downtrend, the bearish momentum will be very less impactful. It would be like a fish trying to swim upstream. I will continue to keep an eye on ADA and update you on the movements.
Also, it is worth mentioning that TradingView has reached out to me and offered me very kind words, and showed me some support. I thought that was very nice of them and it was very unexpected. Though, I never planned for any of this to happen at all. I was constantly making charts for myself and my friends and some of them suggested I post them publicly. I never imagined any of this would happen, if I did, I would have waited until I had a bit more free time LOL. However, it makes me really happy to know that people are learning from my charts and hopefully it will encourage you all to learn technical analysis for yourselves! In a couple weeks I will have more time to make the educational content you have been asking for, and I will likely chart a wide spectrum of assets. Thank you again for all of the support, it means more to me than you know!
Now for some good news. As a person who follows ADA closely, I know that the adoption of the platform will happen very quickly with the release of smart contracts on the 12th of September. In fact, I think it was built with such a great foundation, I might just do an entire post on the fundamentals of Cardano sometime in the future. Pretty soon, we will see NFTs being created, DeFi, applications being developed, and overall strong adoption of the ADA blockchain platform as a whole. If there will be any immediate reason for ADA to move higher, it will likely be news coming from the summit on the 25-26 of September. So I would keep an eye on their twitter accounts around that time.
Again, I apologize for having less time to post at the moment, but that will change in a couple weeks.
I am going to make a video soon teaching everyone my approach to charting. I will cover the entire workflow process I go through. I hope you enjoy it.
Tell me what you think?
This is not financial advice. DYODD.
Note!!!!!!!
Please do not post my charts on other people's posts in order to say they are wrong. People have different opinions and different takes on technical analysis and that is ok. For example, I do not use a lot of technical indicators for crypto, I focus on patterning, trends, and candles. There is no right or wrong way to do this. I have studied it all and I have my own style. I just know what works for me. That being said, I do not want upset analysts coming to my page because someone posted my chart on their page saying they are wrong. I understand why that would bother them, because I would not like it either. Therefore, please refrain from doing so, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and no one is right 100% of the time. If you are not learning everyday you are not growing and that includes me as well. Please respect other analysts with the same respect you show me. Thanks again everyone!
Catatan
Keep an eye on the price movements right now. What I see is a possible double bottom pattern. Lets see if it forms!Catatan
Well, no double bottom for us! Maybe next time, anyways, its time for some sleep! Cheers!Catatan
So of course I didn't sleep yet. I have been starring at the BTC chart for the past hour. I don't like it. I think we got all the juice we are going to get out of the pennant. The winds are shifting, and it is not a great time for them to shift. I would set alerts if you haven't. The price has not sustained enough buying volume and is extremely vulnerable right now. If you are worried about the price declining, set limit orders at a price you like.Catatan
In my opinion ADA looks better than BTC, but I will put it to you this way, if BTC falls, I can see 38k as a possibility, which would put ADA somewhere around 1.85. Be aware. BTC is hanging on by a thread.Catatan
Incase anyone is wondering why I am thinking this, it is because BTC's base has broken down. Now we have a straight channel sticking out basically. Which is extremely vulnerable and lacks no base at all. Obviously, things can change, but BTC is not in a great position right now, which would be terrible for ADA.Catatan
Bears slowing taking control of BTC, support for BTC is around 44900 support for ADA 2.18. I may get my chance to enter again after all. Cheers!
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