Apple (AAPL) Has Probably Plateaued

4 Jan 2019

I'm doing this main chart using the log scale because it makes it so obvious that growth is slowing down. We just got rejected hard off the resistance that has held us since the 80's! We're also in a giant rising wedge, and are JUST touching the bottom of it right at this very moment (actually, I'm being generous with my line. In truth, we've broken down already). Now, I don't think Apple will disappear. That's not what this analysis is about. As I've mentioned recently, I think many tech stocks have plateaued. Some may continue higher eventually, but Apple most likely will not grow much. Why? I think the world's population has peaked, and people's interest in technology has also peaked. People who speculated on Apple have also walked out with massive profits. Just look at that graph! In my opinion, and I know it's controversial, there is no reason for Apple to continue to grow at an astronomical rate. As you can see, growth has clearly reached a point that it cannot sustain and it will likely flatline, or experience a long period of slow growth. Their tech has simply become a part of our daily lives. It's almost part of our biology at this point. Why speculate on it anymore? I argue that by becoming so valuable, it has actually set the stage for its own demise. I don't know if this makes any sense to you. By demise I mean stagnation, basically.

Anyway, where Apple flatlines is anyone's guess. We have some possibilities on this chart (green zones). It could be fairly near current prices (in the $80-100 area). Or it could be in the $50 zone. That seems more likely to me, given the size of the tech bubble.

I think people will continue to use Apple products every day, so I don't see it really falling off a cliff permanently. It's also dropped pretty substantially from it's all-time-high already. As I mentioned in my DJI analysis, I was pretty sure it would not be able to sustain above the $1 Trillion market cap. I was surprised that it held up there as long as it did, to be honest. A lot of people out there will keep on harping about investing and how everyone should still hold Apple stock in their portfolio. I do not think there is much upside anymore. It might EVENTUALLY gain back a good amount of what it's lost since the ATH, but I doubt it'll reach beyond $1 Trillion again. This is just my view, though. I could be totally wrong. I just have a feeling about it though.

I am not a professional financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.

-Victor Cobra

5 Jan 2019

Catatan

Since the tech space seems to be gearing up for one last potential hurrah, we could see more of a bounce on Apple here. We've already broken our long term bullish structure, but I think there's a chance for us to bounce back up to the $160-170 zone before dropping more.

18 Jan 2019

Catatan

So we've found support and we're currently bouncing back up to the $160 area. Since the market has recovered decently across the board, we could see AAPL breaking back up. We'd need to confirm above $160 to start. We could then see a double top play out or simply consolidate for a while.