AA Long @34.48 - oversold

22 Jul

Oversold and 5 down days but still in a longer term uptrend. I have a full plate so I'm not trading it but I would if I didn't. There's also some support right here as well (Apr/May consolidation and Dec '23 high).

23 Jul

Catatan

12M backtest stats:

34-5* (5 open lots since 7/10/24 -- 34-0 on closed trades prior to that)
Average gain (includes open "losing" trades = +5.5% (+6.9% on closed trades)
Median gain = +5.5%
Range = -10.2% to +24.3%
Total Return (12M) - 2.1x lot size (23.3% based on 9 lot max investment)
Max lots held - 9
Longest lot trade - 111 trading days
Shortest trade - 2 trading days (+24.3% gain)
per day return = +0.27%/lot/day

9 Agu

Catatan

I've been lazy updating this because I'm not actually trading it, but in the interests of transparency and accountability, if I had been trading this I'd have added more lots as the price went lower and was oversold at the following levels:

original lot: 34.48
+1 lot - 33.90
+1 lot - 32.84
+1 lot - 31.77
+1 lot - 28.44

14 Agu

Catatan

Sorry, this is a day late bc I haven't been paying close attention due to not actually trading it, but I'd have closed out my most recent lot at the end of the day yesterday at 31.60 - overbought and profitable. That would make the most recent lot a gain of 11.1% in 6 trading days. Obviously, the others are currently still in the red.

26 Agu

Catatan

Would have closed all but the original lot on Aug 19 at the close at $34.00 if I had been trading this. That would have given gains of 0.3% on lot 2, 3.5% on lot 3, and 7.0% on lot 4, to go with the +11.1% on lot 5 that was closed earlier. 1 lot remaining and at this point, it is profitable as well.

I will post some pretty staggering statistics later regarding a backtest with my system I finally finished doing on this stock going all the way back to its first days of trading back in 1968 - covering every market "catastrophe" and bull and bear market of the last nearly 60 years. Fun stuff.

27 Agu

Catatan

OK so here is the system's performance on AA going back to 1968

1975-11* (5 of the 12 open trades would have been opened in the last 2 weeks)
Win rate = 99.4% (not a misprint)

7 of the 12 "losers" are currently down between 23 and 53% each

Average gain per trade (includes "losers") = +4.09%
Median gain = 3.25%
Largest # of lots held at once = 50
% return per lot per day held = +.052% (12.6% annualized)
B/H annualized return = 6.38%
B/H return per day held = .026%

Dividends are not included in these results and would have significantly improved average trade results.

4 Sep

Catatan

Oversold at the close today, so if I was trading it, I'd have added another lot at 30.22 at the close. Would be holding 2 lots - original 34.48 lot and new lot 2 (30.22). I'll try to keep this updated, at least until all open lots are sold.

13 Sep

Catatan

Late again with this update, but I'd have added another lot at 28.53 on Sept. 6 and would be holding 3 lots at this point bought at:
34.48
30.22
28.53

17 Sep

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Finally I can be done trying to remember to update this! Final 3 hypothetical lots are all closed now. And for the record, I could juice my returns and say they were all closed today at 34.50 but that's not what would have happened in real life.

If I had been trading it and actually paying attention, the 30.22 and 28.53 lots would have been closed on Friday at 32.52. The original 34.48 lot would have been closed out today.

So all told, here are the returns on the trades and days held for each since the original post:

11.1%-6d
0.3%-19d
3.5%-18d
7.0%-14d
7.6%-8d
14.0%-5d
.05%-39d

Average return was +6.22%
Average hold was 15.5 trading days

17 Sep

Catatan

Forgot this in the summary:

Per lot Per day held annualized return = +101.1%