Is Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) on the verge of collapse?

13 Jul

This is CoT index of Australian Dollars. As you can see every time Commercials(blue line) are in long term(3-year) negative extreme AND Retailers(green line) are in positive extreme, the asset tanks.
The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations. The last time we had this condition was September 2017 which resulted in multi-year downward momentum.


Here is the commercials net position. The last time they were negative in net positions was July 2020. which resulted in AUD going down up to now. Now they are negative again.


This is Retailers net positions. Interesting part is whenever their net position is around 10,000, AUDUSD seems to go down.


On top of that the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality trends indicate that the market typically reaches its peak around July 24. Therefore, it is expected to decline from that point onward.