Crude Oil to fall...But volatile before fall

The recent dollar index bounce back has led to many commodities to weaken and as a result, Crude oil has made a descending triangle break down on the 4-hrly chart. The next big number due to release this week, the Non-Farm payroll may not be a major event as the FED rate hike is already being factored in the dollar index rally. However timing a short trade is sometimes not easy, even in obvious market trends. I would see a good shorting opportunity in crude oil, only on a spurt of rally back to say USD 46.75 -47.00, for a stop loss at previous lower peak of 47.50, inorder to manage a favorable risk reward ratio.