This script is a quantitative price forecasting indicator that forecasts price changes for a given asset.
The model aims to forecast future prices by analyzing past data within a selected time period. Mathematical probability is used to calculate whether starting from time X can lead to reaching prices Y1 and Y2. In this context, X represents the current selected time period, Y1 represents the selected percentage decrease, and Y2 represents the selected percentage increase. The probabilities are estimated using the simple average.
The simple average is displayed on the chart, showing in red the periods where the price is below the average and in green the periods where the price is above the average.
This powerful tool not only provides forecasts of future prices but also calculates the distribution of variations around the average. It then takes this information and creates an estimate of the average price variation around the simple average.
Using a mean-reverting logic, buying and selling opportunities are highlighted.
We recommend turning off the display of bars on your chart for a better experience when using this indicator.
Unlock the full potential of your trading strategy with our powerful indicator. By analyzing past price data, it provides accurate forecasts and calculates the probability of reaching specific price targets. Its mean-reverting logic highlights buying and selling opportunities, while the simple moving average displayed on the chart shows periods where the price is above or below the average. Additionally, it estimates the average variation of price around the simple average, giving you valuable insights into price movements. Don't miss out on this valuable tool that can take your trading to the next level
Catatan Rilis
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Added a function to adjust the average deviation calculation. Now the indicator modify the deviation data by calculating only the time period selected by the user interface.
Excellent work! Great job :) I got your pm btw and will contact you in future if i have any coding requests, thank you ^^
thequantscience
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@abstract_guy, kind people like you motivate us, thank you brother. You are welcome here :)
lukricky
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1 simple techinical question want to seek your @thequantscience would it be possible that to create 1 more options to choose under the "what price should i forecast ?" coloumn , say, 0.5% ? 0.75% ? i find it would be the best combinations to look at even more smaller timeframe like 5 Mins, the most common TF for hourly scralping, thanks a lot :)
thequantscience
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@lukricky, yes. Will include this feature in the next updates.
lukricky
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this is one of the best indicators so far i come across in tradingview, i believe it should be the editor pick one !!!
thequantscience
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@lukricky, thank you brother. Your words really motivate us.
iamAurum
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This is really amazing work! Thank you guys! Please can you make this into a mean reversion strategy maybe?
iamAurum
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@onlym1998, Also how does the % on the right side work? Like if it says 60% bullish for 1% does that mean the asset has 60% chance of being bullish for the day?
thequantscience
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@onlym1998, hey brother thank for your words. Yes exactly, the right side indicator show you the currently probabilities for the next market move.