The "Trend Reversal Probability Calculator" is a TradingView indicator that calculates the probability of a trend reversal based on the crossover of multiple moving averages and the rate of change (ROC) of their slopes. This indicator is designed to help traders identify potential trend reversals by providing signals when the short-term moving averages start to slope in the opposite direction of the long-term moving average.
To use the indicator, simply add it to your TradingView chart and adjust the input parameters according to your preferences. The input parameters include the length of the moving averages, the ROC length (trend sensitivity), and the reversal sensitivity (signal percentage).
The indicator calculates the ROC of the moving averages and determines if the short-term moving averages are sloping in the opposite direction of the long-term moving average. The number of short-term moving averages that meet this condition is then counted, and the probability of a trend reversal is calculated based on the percentage of short-term moving averages that meet this condition.
When the probability of a trend reversal is high, a bullish or bearish signal is generated, depending on the direction of the reversal. The bullish signal is generated when the short-term moving averages start to slope upward, and the bearish signal is generated when the short-term moving averages start to slope downward.
Traders can use the "Trend Reversal Probability Calculator" to identify potential trend reversals and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. It is important to note that this indicator is not a guarantee of a trend reversal and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to make informed trading decisions.
Catatan Rilis
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Added 'Dark' color theme, since colors are calculated at runtime and the style tab is not editable.
any recommendations on the settings of lower time frame such as 5 mins or 15 mins chart ? besides i love your script work very much , the vol divergence should be one of the best editors pick
kurtsmock
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This is a neat take on estimating probability. I wonder if there's a way to quantifiably test it. Like when probability is 60% of bull reversal, does a bull reversal happen 60% of the time. Or is the 60% really a function of the moving average direction and not indicative of the true probability of a change of trend.
cyatophilum
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@kurtsmock, the probability is calculated off moving average. I could create a calculator based off other things in another script.
Escapulatus11
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Sensitivity 1 to 9 witch one is the most sensitive? Also is any way to increase it beyond 4999 imput moving average love you indicator
Pratik_4Clover
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Thanks!
dcorley
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Very impressive work! Cyatophilum has some of the best documentation on TV. I'll be signing up for premium to check those out as well.
Hey this is a great help thank you for creating this! I was wondering if there’s a possibility of a “dark theme” option or to change the color of MA’s so they appear like yours but on a darker background. That would make the trend direction easier to spot for some of us. Thanks again :)
cyatophilum
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@organicfield, you can change all the colors in the "style" tab