U.S. natgas dips at Dec contract expiry on lower demand forecast
U.S. natural gas futures slid on the expiration day of the December contract on Monday, as forecasts for demand dropped and production rose to near all-time highs.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures 
NG1! for December delivery fell 31.2 cents, or 4.4%, to settle at $6.712 per million British thermal units.
"We've got some weather model moderation in the 6-10 day period, meaning that we lost some heating degree days ... there's going to be a fair amount of volatility here between the weather model forecast, the post trading from the holiday season and then, of course, for contract expiration," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall to 116 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week from 125.8 bcfd in the prior week.
Refinitiv data also showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.6 bcfd so far in November, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in October.
"This market has relinquished most of last week's strong gains largely on negative spillover from the renewed plunge in oil prices," energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Oil prices fell close to their lowest this year earlier on Monday as street protests against strict COVID-19 curbs in China, the world's biggest crude importer, stoked concern over the outlook for fuel demand.
In addition, the market had questions about whether Freeport LNG will be able to restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in mid-December as planned.
That matters because once the 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) plant restarts it will consume U.S. gas to turn it into LNG for export, boosting demand for gas at the same time that cold winter weather will boost heating demand.
Meanwhile, British gas contracts for short-term delivery jumped on Monday morning on rising demand amid cold weather and low wind power generation, while Dutch contracts eased on steady supplies.
Week ended Nov 25 (Forecast) | Week ended Nov 18 (Actual) | Year ago Nov 25 | Five-year average Nov 25 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -103 | -80 | -54 | -34 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,461 | 3,564 | 3,572 | 3,569 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -3.0% | -1.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2021 | Five Year Average (2017-2021) |
Henry Hub | 6.87 | 7.33 | 5.12 | 3.73 | 2.89 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 35.75 | 36.34 | 27.71 | 16.04 | 7.49 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 29.96 | 31.12 | 32.98 | 18.00 | 8.95 |
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 404 | 215 | 305 | 347 | 362 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 408 | 221 | 313 | 353 | 369 |
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 100.1 | 100.6 | 101.0 | 89.6 | |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 91.5 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 8.2 | |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.2 | 109.2 | 110.2 | 97.9 | |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.9 | |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.0 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | |
U.S. Commercial | 15.4 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 11.5 | |
U.S. Residential | 25.3 | 22.3 | 27.2 | 17.2 | |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.4 | 27.0 | 29.8 | 26.0 | |
U.S. Industrial | 25.3 | 24.5 | 25.4 | 24.0 | |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
Total U.S. Consumption | 105.2 | 95.1 | 106.3 | 85.8 | |
Total U.S. Demand | 125.8 | 116.0 | 127.8 | 100.2 | |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Dec 2 | Week ended Nov 25 | Week ended Nov 18 | Week ended Nov 11 | Week ended Nov 4 | |
Wind | 14 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 12 |
Solar | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 32 | 39 | 41 | 38 | 39 |
Coal | 20 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
Nuclear | 23 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | -- | 6.57 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | -- | 6.10 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | -- | 12.21 | |||
Dominion South (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | -- | 5.82 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | -- | 6.15 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | -- | 6.87 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | -- | 10.58 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | -- | 5.50 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | -- | 6.65 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (EL-PK-NPMS-SNL) | -- | 76.50 | |||
PJM West (EL-PK-PJMW-SNL) | -- | 49.50 | |||
Ercot North (EL-PK-ERTN-SNL) | -- | 41.50 | |||
Mid C (EL-PK-MIDC-SNL) | -- | 85.00 | |||
Palo Verde (EL-PK-PLVD-SNL) | -- | 50.50 | |||
SP-15 (EL-PK-SP15-SNL) | -- | 95.50 | |||