5500 DRAFT 7-8, 2450 & 2500 FRIDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
Introduction - This is continuation of a series that intends to deliver you 5500 in November 2025. I did say I would not make another public post because of what I felt was bad policy. That should not, however, punish the entire field of TradingView users from the benefits of the incoming rally to 2450, 2500, and ultimately 2675+ before 05/01 FOMC.
From Here On Out - We will simply make a new post for every 40 update comments. But please understand how strange and silly that is, considering that updates - as proven over and over many times by this service in the last year - are pretty much THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
Details - We will add as we go. For background evidence that I called the last several days of price action leading into this rally, see the two links in related post section below. But first, this is the chart we left off last in 7-7 before going to the private post:
VS What just happened:
a) for chart above
b) some people might call that nailing a move perfect, perfect
c) BUT ONLY IF WE GET TO 2460 before London opens at 2 AM ET
d) for reference, this the notes I put out at 2354, 22 pts ago:
And... why it should take this path of an "arc rally":
4:47 PM ET, Originally, I thought it was going full blown blow-off top to 2740 starting like this:
a) but after breaking the arc.. the bar count for this rally still holds
b) as stated at the beginning of this week
c) THURSDAY IS BAR 98
d) FRIDAY IS BAR 99
e) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS 1/3 OF BAR 100
f) and they criticize whatever they want
g) when they look up and see 25xx Monday morning
h) they might realize, they didn't know what they were talking about
AND AT 4:53 PM ET, ON THURSDAY 04/11/24, LET ME REITERATE THIS CALL
a) just 2-3 days ago, I was criticized for outlandish calls that "got lucky landing in the ball park"
b) let me be clear about this point again
c) that AFTER THE BREAK OF THE ARC IN CHART ABOVE
d) that destroyed the move to 2740
e) that at this moment, I stand by the target of 2675 on or before Monday 04/29
f) 2 days ahead of MAY 1ST FOMC
From here now to 2 AM ET Monday at London open:
1) first we move to 2450-2460
2) correct to 2410-2420
3) then finish 2500-2525, I'm going to call 2510
4) and on Monday in New York, we should be correcting to 2420-2430
5) that's wrap for Thursday afternoon notes
6) please understand that despite my intention to keep everyone updated
7) I am also trying to not get banned
8) so unless the price action deviate from the expectations meaningfully
9) I am going to refrain from adding too much
10) as this is considered manipulation... sigh..
From Here On Out - We will simply make a new post for every 40 update comments. But please understand how strange and silly that is, considering that updates - as proven over and over many times by this service in the last year - are pretty much THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
Details - We will add as we go. For background evidence that I called the last several days of price action leading into this rally, see the two links in related post section below. But first, this is the chart we left off last in 7-7 before going to the private post:
VS What just happened:
a) for chart above
b) some people might call that nailing a move perfect, perfect
c) BUT ONLY IF WE GET TO 2460 before London opens at 2 AM ET
d) for reference, this the notes I put out at 2354, 22 pts ago:
And... why it should take this path of an "arc rally":
4:47 PM ET, Originally, I thought it was going full blown blow-off top to 2740 starting like this:
a) but after breaking the arc.. the bar count for this rally still holds
b) as stated at the beginning of this week
c) THURSDAY IS BAR 98
d) FRIDAY IS BAR 99
e) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS 1/3 OF BAR 100
f) and they criticize whatever they want
g) when they look up and see 25xx Monday morning
h) they might realize, they didn't know what they were talking about
AND AT 4:53 PM ET, ON THURSDAY 04/11/24, LET ME REITERATE THIS CALL
a) just 2-3 days ago, I was criticized for outlandish calls that "got lucky landing in the ball park"
b) let me be clear about this point again
c) that AFTER THE BREAK OF THE ARC IN CHART ABOVE
d) that destroyed the move to 2740
e) that at this moment, I stand by the target of 2675 on or before Monday 04/29
f) 2 days ahead of MAY 1ST FOMC
From here now to 2 AM ET Monday at London open:
1) first we move to 2450-2460
2) correct to 2410-2420
3) then finish 2500-2525, I'm going to call 2510
4) and on Monday in New York, we should be correcting to 2420-2430
5) that's wrap for Thursday afternoon notes
6) please understand that despite my intention to keep everyone updated
7) I am also trying to not get banned
8) so unless the price action deviate from the expectations meaningfully
9) I am going to refrain from adding too much
10) as this is considered manipulation... sigh..
Catatan
For Regulars: 1) I meant to make this draft public
2) for the benefits of everyone
3) so had to re-post it regularly
4) it's carbon copy, so there are no changes
Catatan
5) on a side note6) I think once we get to Monday
7) that big arc chart - the most recent one above - won't actually be off that much
8) it's just the rest of the way to 2675 that's different
9) and honestly, I still think it's going to be 2740
10) but I don't want to miss another big target
Catatan
11) and I do realize this pattern is skipping a big retest of 236512) It's a long way to 6/12 and explosive rallies, have ferocious bear drops afterwards
13) so don't worry about that
Catatan
14) meanwhile, if it stops at 2400, this has been and continues to be first back up plan:
15) for chart above, hitting for 210 straight points
16) and early too, which scares me bc the early ones tend to be right bc of "room for error"
Catatan
5:50 PM ET, 10 min to U.S. aftermarket open notes:1) on the immediate time frame, the check to 2365 is OBVIOUS...
2) but NOT COMPLETELY OBVIOUS because of the smaller arc pattern playing out
3) this pattern does not like to retrace a lot once it has left previous high, which it has
4) so be aware
Catatan
5) and our target tonight is 2455 before London opens6) cause you know how they are, no rally they can't smack down
Catatan
7) 6:05 if it makes it to 2378 next, you can forget 65 retrace8) bc the question, will it stop at 2400
9) I stand by my call for 2460 until proven wrong
Catatan
6:14 PM ET, If you've wondered why, each time I was SOOOO frustrated when it gave us ONLY 50 a) of the expected 100 like a couple of days ago
b) when I said that guy "had no idea" what we were doing here
c) or my frustration as to why we "were at 2350 SOOOO late"
d) I think you are about to see why
e) and by 4/29, why I kept calling 2350, 2400, and higher "so early"
Catatan
f) and my insistence that despite the "outlandish" calls for "imaginary targets" g) that I was trying dumb down the curves to have it make sense
Catatan
h) because I just wanted to get to 2400s early move to 25xx and slow down ahead of 5/01 FOMCi) you are about to see why I kept trying to say that I was being reasonable
j) and as the rally pick up, it will finish "unreasonably compared to my base line numbers"
Catatan
k) and remember, this I see DESPITE THE BIG ARC BEING DESTROYEDl) I did say it that one sounded stupid to me too
m) but you will get see why I didn't call it off until disproven
n) and as I type there is 2378, bye bye 2365 (maybe for weeks)
Catatan
6:31 PM ET, 74.XX, this part from now to 2388 will take the most timea) once we get through 2388 in what I think is 3-4 hours
b) the rest of the way to 2455 will be much much faster
Catatan
c) and be awared) none of this means you should disregard trailing stop rules to protect the money you make today
Catatan
7:20 from my car, zig-zag to to 2384 is next.a) I said earlier bye bye to 65
b) this means that your stop can be higher than 65
c) how tight you want to be is up to you
d) I am not "ignoring" corrections
e) but the move to 2458 has 2 parts
f) the first part is from here to 2388 where it should be bunch of zig zags
g) meaning up 4 down 3, up 5 down 4, up 6 down 4 etc...
h) this part can take literally hours
I) but once you get to 2390+, the move from there to 2458 should LITERALLY SHOCKING
Catatan
j) should *be* LITERALLY SHOCKINGCatatan
9:01 PM ... took a REALLY LOOOOONG TIME TO MOVE... but just tagged 86? a) I AM NOT OVER TRADING THIS MOVE
a) I am simply holding to 2458
Catatan
b) if you think you can out smart an 80-point move in less than 8 hours...c) go right ahead
d) I'm not that smart
Catatan
9:19 PM, 2385, and I saw 88.xx whatever...a) it looks like it's gonna drag to 2405
b) so next three hours is "sideways to up" zigzag
c) once we get close to midnight NY time
d) we should get a SHARP MOVE up
e) if it all develops as expected, pay attention to the move and don't overstay your welcome
Catatan
9:50 PM ET 2389.xx I can tell you now odds really favor breaking 2400a) I was still wondering earlier because 6-2 and 6-3 drafts have been so correct on the curve
b) but it really does favor 2450+ tonight
c) this is one of those sessions you kind of have to be up for THE NEXT 19 HOURS
d) why?
e) bc after 2458 is 2420-ish
f) and we should close NY tomorrow after taking a stab at 2510-2525
Catatan
g) and if gold makes it to 2458 BEFORE LONDON OPENS...h) there should be NO MORE DOUBT on what London means ok?
i) gold is soooo afraid of London, that after doing nothing for 4 hours at 2370s...
j) decided it had to wake up and get it to it
k) if it's going to have a serious rally sometime this century
l) and WHY?
m) watch the next 2 big sell offs ok?
n) then tell me later when they start
Catatan
10:05 PM ET and blistering hot at 2394.xx'a) it will make sense much later
b) why I called for 2320-2400 soooo early
c) it was because I was trying to be reasonable
d) and you will find out 2 weeks from now
e) that gold (and by extension silver and of course my favorite AG)
f) is tired of being reasonable
Catatan
Catatan
10:12, It looks like a top between 1:30-2:00 AM ET, right before London opens.Catatan
10:18 PM ET, 92.XX, Looks like top 1:00-1:30.Catatan
10:20 PM ET 94.XX, for whatever reasons that time is getting closera) remember after 2405, it's going to be really quick
b) if I am caught in to risk management, I WILL NOT ADD NOTES UNTIL I AM DONE WITH IT
c) so be aware
Catatan
10:33, 2389.xx, still in "sideways to up mode" but next leg will be faster than last one:a) after 2405, it will be a flash
b) so be ready, last time I add notes will be 2410, probably won't add notes until past the top
Catatan
10:43 PM 2389.xx your stop need to be now needs to be 2385 or highera) there's a shift of trend pushing the top back closer to 3 AM ET
b) this may change back again
c) or there might be something else happening
d) if I don't tab in time, ALWAYS TRADE DEFENSIVELY
e) that means exit first, ask questions later
'f) you can always get back in if you want
Catatan
g) shifted back to before 2 AM ETCatatan
h) 10:56 PM ET, that part just now where it tagged 87.XXi) considering that it just moved up 60 from 2327 earlier today and hit 95 just minutes ago
j) almost EVERYONE would say that's a sell signal, AND THEY WOULDN'T BE WRONG to say so
k) that part is HARD AF to figure out
Catatan
Catatan
11:28 PM ET, 2388.84, be patient and here's why:a) 75% of this move happen in the last 20-25% of its time lot
b) so if we start counting at previous top which is 2365, and the top being 2458
c that means the majority of the value
d) which is now to 2458, should be in the next 150-180 minutes
e) if overall picture holds
f) but decide what your risk tolerance is for yourself here
g) bc it's at that do die moment soon, where either it completes the move
h) or morphs into something else
i) and like previous times you've been up with me....
j) I still see it completing its move AT THIS SECOND IN TIME
Catatan
k) but I am totally aware it just broke trend at 86.xxl) make that decision for yourself
m) because it maybe obvious one way or the other to you BEFORE I POST NOTES AGAIN
Catatan
11:37 AM ET, 2388.xx, high how looks like 2:20, so 135 minutes outCatatan
11:54 2384.75, it's not over.. yeta) this setup is really strong
b) while I wait to get back in (watch the recent down trend)
c) I think it has one more move to make
Catatan
12:10, WILL LONDON ACTUALLY BUY FOR REAL?Catatan
12:18, 2385.xx, second leg to 2453? now? pushed to 5 AM? a) I'm in it with tight stop
b) you know how I feel about London
c) I'll be surprised AF if this goes all the way up
d) but that's what SHOULD HAPPEN NOW
e) says trend engine
f) but be ready if London do not cooperate, because they usually do not
g) in fact, they if you are bullish on gold, they usually take you back for a beat down
h) so be aware
Catatan
i) usually the selling doesn't get intense in London until 3 AMj) and the window says we have " a shot" at pushing for a 3:25 high right now
k) if things goes smoothly... like they ever do
Catatan
l) 86.87 at 12:24 and we need to get above 93 to move quicklyCatatan
m) 12:50 AM ET 2386.xx, gotta focus on the trend engine and watch my trades1) so not taking questions
2) we have a possible run to 2425 before 3 AM ET, which is when I think the strong selling starts
3) so there's that
4) because of this unexpected detour
5) be attentive in trailing stops
6) because surprises don't like to be single
Catatan
1:02 AM ET 2384.XX gotta shut this down. a) don't know if it's really over
b) don't care
c) gotta see averages of trend maps first
d) until next time..
e) have a good night
Catatan
f) unless that spike to 85.xx just now leads to somethingg) but it better keep going bc Im at tired of waiting point again
Catatan
h) 1:12, 2385.xx yeah I'm done with this postCatatan
i) 1:36 I see it, I'm in it, but I am not updating, because I don't know how this endsj) so I don't have enough time to manage expectations
k) have a good night
Catatan
l) my only comment on this is IF it actually moves up, it would have to stop at 2425 and check to 2412 or somethingm) but that's all I can give
n) I don't even know if it will actually move in time
o) it being so close to London open now
Catatan
2:06 if they sell, it's 65 they want first, right? a) that's a complete wrap for this piece
b) I have really good idea now of how adjust for "3 session system"
c)
Catatan
.... c) bc it's obvious trend maps work... until session changesd) we've done this how many times now?
e) so I should force a "trend break" on each session change? or London only?
f) whatever, I'm bedsy
Catatan
2:33 OH WOW.. London buys!!Catatan
a) so adjustment some of the time?b) that's just too hard
Catatan
2:36 AM ET 2391.XX what can we hit now?a) start with 2425
b) and then 2458
d) but again, I've never seen London buy THAT much
e) so start low like 2400-2405
Catatan
2:41 this is total wrap from me at this hour... but London has a shot for 2458!!!!a) hahahahahaha
b) what in the world?
c) quiet or you'll jinx it
Catatan
3:12 AM 2396.XX and ditto. But I can't add more notes or I'll get banned. SO THIS POST HAS ENDED, WAIT FOR NEXT ONE. TRAIL YOUR STOP TO 2458 YOU'LL BE FINE.
Order dibatalkan
4:30 AM 2396.XX, it's probably over bc dungo jinxed it.... I knew he spoke too soon. London beat the high by $5, I guess I should be thankful it's not 2365 by now. That's total wrap for this show.
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Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.