Gold collapse imminent? 7hr chart

24 Okt 2024

Price action on Gold since August as shown on the above 7hr chart.

A Euphoric rally in the last 3 months has Gold bugs jubilant in celebration with a record 48% win from September 2011 (Ignore the 480% return of the S&P 500 in the same period).

There are now messages aplenty calling for 5k and beyond. Who knows. One thing I do know, a common theme throughout the messages, people are euphoric. Market tops print with euphoria.

Now this idea is not about who is wrong or who is right, congratulations if you've made a profit. The point of the post is to make sure profits are realised. A profit on paper is not a win and the bubble may now be about to pop. 90% of folks long on gold will not collect the recent gains.

Why might the party be about to end?

A few reasons..

1) Price action support is broken. This is also true for RSI.

2) Throughout history RSI above 80 on the 3 week chart (below) has been a warning shot for extreme overbought conditions. Look left. Corrections between 20% and 50% are recorded.

3) Price action is at historical macro resistance (see 2 month chart below).

Is it possible this time is different? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

3 week


2 month

31 Okt 2024

Trade aktif

Market resistance confirmed.
Take profits.

6 Nov 2024

Trade aktif

4 Day Gravestone DOJI print with confirmation.
Is Gold about to crash 25% to 2k for a support test?

12 Nov 2024

Catatan

Short position since publication returning a nice profit. Stay short.

Price action down $150 with 5% correction. Unless gold bugs can return price action to the support channel the breakout will confirm in the next day or two.

2 day chart

14 Nov 2024

Catatan

Price action now exits a 12 day rising wedge.
A 12 day bearish engulfing candle prints.
Should price action fail to return to support the wedge will confirm with a forecast drop to the 1600 area.
Someone somewhere bought spot at almost 2800 recently!

12 day

25 Nov 2024

Catatan

-3.5% in one session! What a number. Short position making money at last.

2550 next support test.
Traders are dumping gold faster than it can sink in the open ocean.

27 Nov 2024

Catatan

We now have confirmation of resistance on past support.
Any clinger on gold bugs still hoping for higher highs might want to consider that position pronto.

2 day

6 Des 2024

Catatan

Monthly hanging man candle print will confirm this month should price action close at current levels or lower by end of Month.

Confirmation results in a one way trip back to 2000.

Sell SElL sELl !!