Gold Price Forecast (XAUUSD) - 1-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Elements of the Chart:
Wyckoff Distribution Phases:
The chart highlights the structure of a Wyckoff Distribution, with various phases labeled, such as Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), and Automatic Rally (AR).
Phase B is ongoing, indicating significant volatility with price rejection near the highs, followed by a sign of weakness (SOW).
Elliott Wave Count:
Wave 5 of Wave (D) concludes the uptrend, marked by a potential reversal at the resistance zone of $2,652. This level aligns with the UT (Upthrust) in Phase B, which often precedes a major downward move in distribution.
The corrective structure following the peak is identified as an ABC correction in the early phases of the decline, further validating the transition into distribution.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance is clearly identified at $2,651.944, which has held up multiple times in the distribution phase.
The Support Line for the AR Distribution sits at $2,616.613, with further downside potential to $2,607.118 and $2,603.283 (retracement levels).
There is an important confluence zone near $2,621.105, acting as a key pivot.
LPSY (Last Point of Supply):
The final stages of distribution indicate a potential LPSY near the $2,650-$2,652 level. This suggests the exhaustion of buyers, which could lead to a significant markdown phase in the coming sessions.
Volume and Divergence:
The Accumulation/Distribution Line (Red Line) shows divergence from price, indicating waning momentum on the latest rally. This aligns with the Phase B characteristics of supply overcoming demand, further supporting the bearish outlook.
Projected Path:
The projected wave structure anticipates a move lower, with (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), and (v) subdivisions marked in the corrective downtrend. These follow the classic Wyckoff Distribution model's expected price behavior after the upthrust.
Conclusion:
This analysis of XAUUSD suggests that the pair is transitioning from a Wyckoff Distribution Phase into a markdown, as buyers struggle to push prices higher beyond the $2,652 level. The Elliott Wave structure aligns with this bearish outlook, as wave 5 completes the uptrend. Traders should watch for further signs of weakness and potential breakdowns of key support levels to confirm the next leg down
Wyckoff Distribution Phases:
The chart highlights the structure of a Wyckoff Distribution, with various phases labeled, such as Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), and Automatic Rally (AR).
Phase B is ongoing, indicating significant volatility with price rejection near the highs, followed by a sign of weakness (SOW).
Elliott Wave Count:
Wave 5 of Wave (D) concludes the uptrend, marked by a potential reversal at the resistance zone of $2,652. This level aligns with the UT (Upthrust) in Phase B, which often precedes a major downward move in distribution.
The corrective structure following the peak is identified as an ABC correction in the early phases of the decline, further validating the transition into distribution.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance is clearly identified at $2,651.944, which has held up multiple times in the distribution phase.
The Support Line for the AR Distribution sits at $2,616.613, with further downside potential to $2,607.118 and $2,603.283 (retracement levels).
There is an important confluence zone near $2,621.105, acting as a key pivot.
LPSY (Last Point of Supply):
The final stages of distribution indicate a potential LPSY near the $2,650-$2,652 level. This suggests the exhaustion of buyers, which could lead to a significant markdown phase in the coming sessions.
Volume and Divergence:
The Accumulation/Distribution Line (Red Line) shows divergence from price, indicating waning momentum on the latest rally. This aligns with the Phase B characteristics of supply overcoming demand, further supporting the bearish outlook.
Projected Path:
The projected wave structure anticipates a move lower, with (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), and (v) subdivisions marked in the corrective downtrend. These follow the classic Wyckoff Distribution model's expected price behavior after the upthrust.
Conclusion:
This analysis of XAUUSD suggests that the pair is transitioning from a Wyckoff Distribution Phase into a markdown, as buyers struggle to push prices higher beyond the $2,652 level. The Elliott Wave structure aligns with this bearish outlook, as wave 5 completes the uptrend. Traders should watch for further signs of weakness and potential breakdowns of key support levels to confirm the next leg down
Catatan
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.