The Gold rise during the geopolitics tension between Iran and US last previous week and endured on retracement 61.8% - TF-Monthly. Potential correction may happen if the price fail to do breakout and potential support level $ 1506.9, may the last support area to continue the bullish trend on Gold. Once Gold does breakout the resistance area Approx $ 1600.6 after the correction pattern, Gold may continue the uptrend movement till $ 1781 - Retracement 88.6% - TF Monthly (Double Top). The geopolitical may still continue and Iran's retaliation won't let the geopolitical tension ease easily.
There are too many presumptions taken here -- The geopolitics tensions seem to be calming down (at least between the US and Iran) and I think it is quite unlikely that gold will have enough momentum to break the next resistance.
People are probably going to start selling off and securing the profits they have made considering the risk is high right now.
Guswin
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@maxob, correct, thats why there will be some pattern correction might happen after the price fail to do breakout at resistance 61.8, this resistance area considered as a strong area due to retracement from time frame monthly/daily. The people definetly secure their profit and will see the next potential corrective structure that having potential structure to break the resistance area of 61.8. As what we see here the momentum to break the strong resistance area of 61.8 need a strong trigger to move up the price and what is the trigger??, could be come from the recent issue that silently will pop up when people sell the gold with excitement during the global tension.it seems won't ease easily. Cross finger peace may happen soon.
Guswin
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@tonite, Gold did breakout and now reached 161.8 , selling during bullish trend is more risk because we against the trend. Instead of War, Corona issue is powerful issue to lift up the price of Gold, then what next ?? we need to wait potential pattern for reversal or correction ABC, another bullsh pattern may break the new price high at $ 1781 (potential tripple top) time frame monthly.
tonite
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@Guswin, Yup, I guess corona was enough to give it that break. Good call.
As you said, there is a clear Elliot Wave pattern that has formed - but corona seems to be only getting worse, maybe we won't get an ABC, but maybe we will. We will see what happens tomorrow, not looking too awesome with Italy quarantine right now. I'll do an SPY fundemental update soon
Guswin
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@tonite, yes Correct, there was clear Elliot Wave pattern has been formed and now Iam also looking for the update pattern may formed during this year. Potentially Gold may continue it's bullish trend before the Election of US President. But the effect of Corona may effected the consumer spending as well. We will see what happen and waiting your update fundamental also :)
tonite
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@Guswin, fundamental SPY update is up. I'll do gold tomorrow, but usually gold just goes up if SPY goes down.
People are probably going to start selling off and securing the profits they have made considering the risk is high right now.