Last week we've arrived to an important resistance level at 114,5. This level is the 2017 multi month resistance. It took the first quarter to break below it and was tested back again and again in this year. We broke the 8 hrs chart up trend line yesterday. If the break above 114,5 was allowed to happen price needs to recover above the blue trendline in the following hours. In this case we will have the final pivot for the uptrend. When that breaks the bull party is over.
Do you mean when the blue trend line breaks to the upside, the BEAR party is over?
chartwatchers
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@trade2win19, no. When it breaks down 2-3 weeks from now. Breaking up is a good sign for the bulls.
spx5001
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If it broke through the strong resistance at $114-$115, why would it do a fake breakout only to come crashing down by the end of Nov? You lost me here. What happened to your $125 call? I actually think if it breaks through $114-$115, it won't stop until 125.Classic flag formation here. BTW the Dollar probably is now entering a very long bullish period. While the EURO is doomed.
chartwatchers
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@spx5001, the dollar is dead. They printed too much of it. Yes the possible target is 125. I didnt set any exact target here. We need to watch a break above the blue trendline. That is what happening now. But it will top out in 2-3 weeks and heading down...
spx5001
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@chartwatchers, I respectfully disagree about the Dollar and Yen. I think it's likely to be in a multi year rally from here. Putting that aside, there isn't a 100% correlation between the Yen and the Dollar. So while the Dollar might stall out after the inverse head and shoulders formation in complete, the Yen will be it's own animal once $114-115 is breached. Seasonally the Yen and Gold together since the Fed started raising interest rates tend to decline all the way until a week to two after the Fed raises interest rates in the fourth quarter. Look it up. Why this is so, I have no idea. The hawkish Fed will no doubt want to raise rates even faster now that the stock market is turning into a bubble and the fact that the tax cut plan is going to pass. All of this is raising concern that Fed might be behind the curve. Thus higher Bond yields, Higher Dollar and lower Gold and Yen.