Every single time the FED has started a rate-cutting cycle with unemployment under 5%, a recession has ensued. 100% of the time since the 1940s.
Every orange vertical line is a recession in the USA. notice how the fed funds rate (red line) tends to drop right before. Exactly like what is happening now. Value and real estate is where its at now that the fed will most likely return rates to effectively 0%.
unfortunately long on unemployment. And short the stock market indices.