$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025

🔮 SPY / SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Month/Q3 closeout: Quarter-end rebalancing + fund flows set tone early in the week.
🚩 Jobs Week: ADP (Wed) + NFP (Fri) will dominate macro narrative and Fed expectations.
💻 Mega-cap rotation: AAPL, NVDA, MSFT drive tech leadership amid yield volatility.
🌐 Housing + confidence: Home sales + Case-Shiller + sentiment test consumer resilience.
💵 Rates & Fed tone: Packed Fed speaker slate keeps policy path in play alongside data.

📊 Key Data & Events (ET)

Mon 9/29
⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Aug)

Tue 9/30
⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep)
⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep)

Wed 10/1
⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing (Sep)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Aug)
⏰ TBA — Auto Sales (Sep)

Thu 10/2
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug)

Fri 10/3
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Sep)
⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Sep)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #ADP #Fed #Powell #jobs #unemployment #wages #housing #consumerconfidence #PMI #bonds #Dollar #megacaps