NQ and MNQ for week of 1/30/2023
The VIX still shows some room to run lower (which means higher because the VIX is inverted). The NQ will try to reach for the target zone this week and likely hit it by Wednesday. The bear market is not over.
However, I am very cautious about how the NQ will make its move. The issue is that big earnings are on tap this week for AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, and GOOGL (all on Thursday 2/2). These stocks make up a large part of both the NQ and the ES by weight.
Futures may chop early in the week waiting on news. TSLA and MSFT earnings came back as mixed, but none of them far from the estimates. I read this to mean that earnings are priced into the market. Price will likely hit both the target zone and the new support line. I think the inclination is to hit the target line early in the week, fail, go back to new support by the end of the week, and from there, potentially chop until moving higher or lower.
My bias is that price will go below new support and go back to the HVN from OCT ‘22 to JAN ‘23
If price does not revert to the HVN below the new support line, then it will not go much higher than the hard resistance at $12,862.25.
However, I am very cautious about how the NQ will make its move. The issue is that big earnings are on tap this week for AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, and GOOGL (all on Thursday 2/2). These stocks make up a large part of both the NQ and the ES by weight.
Futures may chop early in the week waiting on news. TSLA and MSFT earnings came back as mixed, but none of them far from the estimates. I read this to mean that earnings are priced into the market. Price will likely hit both the target zone and the new support line. I think the inclination is to hit the target line early in the week, fail, go back to new support by the end of the week, and from there, potentially chop until moving higher or lower.
My bias is that price will go below new support and go back to the HVN from OCT ‘22 to JAN ‘23
If price does not revert to the HVN below the new support line, then it will not go much higher than the hard resistance at $12,862.25.
Win the battles and you will win the war.
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