US 100 Fact VS Fiction Trading; How We Called The Move..
So I recently called the US100 via the skilling ticker short in various posts, streams and videos aswell as other global index and futures markets. This was just before the recent enormous fall which we can reflect on;
Simply put, if you use price action as a mechanism for anticipating future moves and stop obsessing about every reason for a move under the sun (that may not even be true) things get more probable and they get clearer.
Using the above and early entry confirmation, mixed with using factual evidence like previous long term PA levels I made the judgement to short just before we fell. After all we had seen it happen before at the same price level off the back of a sustained market rally after covid. All the buy-side-bias brought the market up so far before people start to consider getting short and exiting all their longs for gains.
Did I foresee the exact market sentiment / news event that would bring it down? No. Did I need to? Also no.
I just need to have the factual knowledge that a long rise is always followed by a fall to some degree. This is simply how markets work and will always work, a transition from buyers into sellers via market mood. Often, the bigger the rise the larger the retracement inherently.
From there it is simply trade management based on your approach, be it scalp/intraday/swing etc. Focus on your plan and all of its aspects for entry and exit and maximise gains on the fall.
So in short, trade facts and what you can see. It's a lot healthier.
Simply put, if you use price action as a mechanism for anticipating future moves and stop obsessing about every reason for a move under the sun (that may not even be true) things get more probable and they get clearer.
Using the above and early entry confirmation, mixed with using factual evidence like previous long term PA levels I made the judgement to short just before we fell. After all we had seen it happen before at the same price level off the back of a sustained market rally after covid. All the buy-side-bias brought the market up so far before people start to consider getting short and exiting all their longs for gains.
Did I foresee the exact market sentiment / news event that would bring it down? No. Did I need to? Also no.
I just need to have the factual knowledge that a long rise is always followed by a fall to some degree. This is simply how markets work and will always work, a transition from buyers into sellers via market mood. Often, the bigger the rise the larger the retracement inherently.
From there it is simply trade management based on your approach, be it scalp/intraday/swing etc. Focus on your plan and all of its aspects for entry and exit and maximise gains on the fall.
So in short, trade facts and what you can see. It's a lot healthier.
Catatan
Anticipating further falls in the market to long term key PA zones.Catatan
Great idea now to lock in gains via trailing stop and/or total exit + Entry on pops back up.Catatan
Holding off major longs into Monday.Catatan
Use the weekend to plan and check over entries for new longs and exits for shorts taken, if you are investor/long term swing trading / locking in gains.Catatan
No news monday. Looking ahead in the week for extended moves.Catatan
Larger push needed for new re shorts.Catatan
Still needing a higher move RE re entry.Catatan
Look at second level of 1HR / 4hr resistance.Catatan
Looking to scale re shortCatatan
Ideally 15400.Catatan
Hold off any longs.Catatan
Preparing for minor long entries on big fall.Catatan
Large rises need for RE short entries.Catatan
Hold of any new longs until far lower for investor trend.Catatan
Check over 12M chart for very long term fall case. It’s there..!Catatan
No enormous news scheduled, latter stages likely to help.Catatan
Re shorting still higher as per stream this AM.Catatan
Maintaining short bias.Catatan
Exit for gainsCatatan
Still short, (reshort)Catatan
Out of shorts. Hold off for new longs.Catatan
Exit any longs and re short nearer 15100Catatan
Shorts applicable similar to other indexesCatatan
Back up to long term short entries.
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Free Pro Multi Asset Trading Guide:
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.