A short summary what happened the last 3 days: Price almost tagged the 200 SMA on Friday. Powerful bounce on the same day. Swing on Monday ( breaking above the reversal's candle high) Follow through with a trendline break on Tuesday.
The next sign that we'll be testing 7030 again is a break above the 10 and 50 EMA. RSI left oversold territory. MACD also turning up to cross over.
When we break above the false swing candle's high (6700$) the rally will accelerate. This also means a break above the blue dotted trendline.
Hourly chart:
The 100 SMA and 50 SMA just crossed over today. We need both of these moving averages to get above the 200 SMA on the hourly chart and the 200 SMA to turn up again. The hourly chart shows the importance of 6700 again. If we break that level many traders will have the confirmation that we are testing 7000 again. For me it means a new high. As soon as 7000 will be tested price will break above it. When we break 7000 the NAS100USD will be testing 8000 in a few weeks.
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Nice divergence:
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Following the plan
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AFter the 100 SMA and 50 SMA crossed over now the 200 SMA and 50 SMA is crossing over too. The magic 6700 is just a stone's throw from here...
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The daily chart also looks great:
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After a volatile day price broke above both the 10 SMA and 50 SMA just as I expected.
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After a few weeks from now when price will be above 8000 it will be obvious it's a clear buy at the 200 SMA:
Most of the traders still not in this trade.
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This morning we break above thefals swing's level (6700) This will start the recognition phase for shorts : this is not going to drop. I'm waiting for the rally to accelerate at this point.
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thefals= the false
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I'm going to post an idea soon where I show the correlation between today and the dotcom bubble's final rally. One important thing : I'm going to hold this position for weeks most probably for 3-4 months. I suggest don't try to jump in and out because the daily advances can be so big that once you sell your position you will not be able to get back again. And of course the other rule : no shorts here.
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BTFD rule in play. Every oversold point in the RSI 6 is followed by a long period in the overbought territory.
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Naysayers would better to pick a position if they don't want to chase the price at 8000....
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And finally we have the 100 and 200 SMA crossover. At this point there no question the bottom is in. We will be testing the all time highs soon.
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Bull flag
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Was longer than I anticipated but USA is back from Presidents day and they are buying. Flag is breaking to the upside:
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I'm watching this pennant right now:
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All time highs are coming soon:
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Range scenario in play
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Good news! Pennant is forming . It will break in the next 2-3 days. THat will run NASDAQ to new highs.
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The target price is near to 8000. Hold on : longs will be rewarded.
The author's entry call: QQQ $168.17, TQQQ $169.15. Thanks.
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@michaelkid_wang, actually i entered TQQQ when price was 130. I just suggested to buy the breakout on Friday instead shorting oil or trading gold.
RobinChong
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The flag was violated and now big red on the futures. What do you think now Arpi?
rafalo
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@RobinChong, I think that for now clearly this idea is invalidated.
rafalo
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What a rollercoaster! It will be not so easy this time. There is fear in the air and every drop could be fast and deep.
This is something new.
harryexe
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it broke
Korinthian
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Nice call!
rafalo
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I think that now clear is that we will have another big drop.
In Europe everything again is in red.
chartwatchers
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@rafalo, Never predict based on European SM. They are mostly just following USA.
DAX was under pressure because of the strong Euro. When the Euro drops DAX will pop too.
Pop not poop...