Yesterday close went through the supporting cliff.
The SPX vs DAX posture is very divergent with DAX falling 4% and SP500 still at the top.
Although DAX is oversold locally, I think the next move is one where SPX will go down (rather than the contrary) and that is the tough call here.
If that holds true, DAX should have a decent rebound from ~11,500 before pursuing lower in May (abc correction).
Take away: - Game plan: a hug on the 125d ema in 4 weeks. - 11,200/11,500 is probably a great buy. - TOP could be around 13,500 in Nov15.
Trading: Still holding shorts at 11,850 level - far from optimum but held through my worst case scenario (which could have been 12,550).
Komentar
look4edge
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remember my bund/ger ratio? first dip/pop minimum to wema34=145 area, it is 5.5-6 pct dax down if bund stays at 160
then maybe forming W reversal fomration, if breaking red trendline - end of bulltrend, but way to go
look4edge
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11250, 10650 daily supports
jangseohee
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mm, i thought i am "seeing" a potential head and then right shoulder IMHO
then it coincide with your 11200 target, which correspond to channel support ^_^
jangseohee
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YaKa
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Kicked in - This is far beyond expectation in 1 day.
SPX did not even correct yet. That makes me wonder what could happen to dax if it is deeper in time..
For now stay short or safer, move on spx
then maybe forming W reversal fomration, if breaking red trendline - end of bulltrend, but way to go