I am curious of what you think about this trade? Be eying it you might see a bullish trend, the market had been going up strong. However, when we examine the technicality of the most recent move, we determine that the market is bearish. We at Pro Trading University entered the market in a shorting position.
So, I am curious, would you call this a trend continuation trade or a trend reversal trade? Let me know in the comments below :)
you may wait for tomorrow if the rate hike or remain unchange . till then due to low volatility remain neutral .
Ahmed-J
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It's surely acting neutral for the past few hours.
Nightwish
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I agree, I`m short on small range break 177.82, but I would not laugh at market. once you get too much confident - it tends to make few slaps right on the face. Good hunting. Cheers
Ahmed-J
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Nice. And I am just in a laughing mode today. I didn't enter this trade because I think it will be a winner. It just meets my trading rules. I am prepared to loose like a man :)
spiterman
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Im in the MOST tiering prosess of backtesting exactly the Break and retouch, as i said my filters are the RSI over bought/sold over/under the 50.0000. And min 1-1 RTR. Doing it on the 15 min on diff. pairs ;)
Ahmed-J
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That's great spiterman. Please keep me updated with your results. I backtested the advanced patterns and tried to put the RSI as a filter. The RSI filter didn't do much with the advanced patterns. I hope it will be a good filter with break and retouch though
dojitrader
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Since you asked ~~~~ I agree that this is a valid set up ~~~~~~
Purely based on structure . . . as your chart shows . . .
I would argue that after a series of higher highs and higher lows - green lines -
an uptrend ~~~~ structure was then broken to the down side with a lower high
followed by a lower low. The first indication of a possible trend change - red lines.
This breakdown is now being tested and any break above 178.20 indicates the
breakdown has failed and the uptrend will likely continue (here again probably with a retest
of that level) Thus trend continuation upside is confirmed above 178.74 and to the
downside below 177.20 area.
{{ throw in a little Elliott Wave and this indicates a reason why the retest of broken structure
might fail. Has the look of a classic impulse wave, other than the crappy weak 3rd wave,
currently coming out of a 4th wave a-b-c correction }}
It will be interesting to see which wins out.
thanks for the chart it was an interesting study !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wishing you lots of pips in 2015 !!!!!!!
Ahmed-J
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I loved the flow of your analysis. You also threw Elliot waves in, that's amazing. I love sharing thoughts and different views on the market. I wish you many pips too :)
spiterman
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I would personally would like to see the RSI over the 50.0000 line before going short, but classic break and touch pre structure. I like it, i don't know if i would say a shift in trend, but bed. room to go short there
Ahmed-J
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Great insight Spiterman. Break and retouch have about 50% winning percentage. However, the risk/reward ration is always great and makes it worth trading them.