The pair is in a correction. The fall is possible.
On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave 5 of (1) of the higher level is forming. Now the development of the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 has ended, and the downward correction iv of 5 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 1.2340–1.2220. The level of 1.2540 is critical for this scenario.
Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 1.2540 with the targets at 1.2340–1.2220.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2540 will let the pair grow to the levels of 1.2650–1.2700.
Trade
Scenario
Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL Entry Point 1.2495 Take Profit 1.2340, 1.2220 Stop Loss 1.2555 Key Levels 1.2220, 1.2340, 1.2540, 1.2650, 1.2700
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1.2550 Take Profit 1.2650, 1.2700 Stop Loss 1.2490 Key Levels 1.2220, 1.2340, 1.2540, 1.2650, 1.2700