ETHUSD Update: 315 resistance breaks and subdegreee Wave 3 is in play just as I wrote about in my previous report. For those of you who go long in the 280s and 90s, 345 is my first target and 374 is my second target.
Clearly a bullish catalyst has sparked the rally, at this point I do not even know what the catalyst is, I can just tell by the vertical nature of this price action. BTC is stagnant which is proving that these markets are competing for order flow and money rotates in and out of them on a selective basis compared to the"follow the leader" relationship I was looking to identify in previous reports.
Now it's about managing the trade. 345 is my first target which I will sell half of my position. The 350 resistance is a target I have been talking about for a number of reports and I stick to my plan. The other half of the position I will let ride and look to sell 25% of it at the 374 level which is the upper portion of the resistance zone. And if that target is reached, then I will let my small portion ride until I determine my next target. The upcoming resistance zone is proportional to the .618 of the previous broad bearish swing.
At the same time, I am now adjusting my stop to break even so that this trade no longer carries any risk. It is possible to give back profit, but that is not loss, that is profit. So my stop is now adjusted to 295.
Also the 306 to 315 area which served as such a tough resistance is now a support level based on inversion. In terms of proportion, a retrace from current levels should not overlap this price area. Something to keep in mind if a minor retrace unfolds from here.
As I mentioned in my previous report, Wave 3's are the ones that wow the market. And they are never the shortest wave in terms of the Elliott Wave rules. Once this wave completes, the next retrace will offer one more buying opportunity to complete the 5th wave of the larger degree Wave 5. I will be able to evaluate targets and risk once the new subdegree 4 is in place.
In summary, this market is in a subdegree Wave 3 which is no surprise and has finally stolen the order flow spot light. I expect my first target of 345 to be reached today and if 350 breaks, the 380 area is likely to be reached in the next day or so as well. My stop has been moved to breakeven which means my trade carries no risk it's all about management from here. Price action analysis. It works.
I would like to thank the Tradingview community for your support and appreciation, as of yesterday I have reached over 1k followers.
Questions and comments welcome.
Komentar
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Sold 50% of position at 345 target for 50+ point profit. Stop raised to 306 for a +12 minimum profit. Trade is risk free now.
In my 20 years of trading, selling a breakout too early has been one of my more costly mistakes. It's one of the bigger mistakes that is rarely discussed among traders. Because, hey, at least you werent a pig and actually locked in a profit right? To some degree that is true, but one has to way the risks of selling too earlier based on technicals, market conditions, and trader sentiment. When ETH traded up and hit $265 a couple weeks ago, many were on the sidelines and remained on the sidelines waiting for a pullback to $220 -$240. That day it hit $265, I told people on this board to jump in because its going to $290 in two days. And it did. People who missed out still were talking of waiting for a pullback to $240-$250. Again I said that wasn't going to happen. And it didn't. Now suddenly we find ourselves above massive resistance, probably the strongest resistance on the charts and we are selling just $25 higher?
Some said they didn't understand why ETH moved rapidly higher last night. At about 12, 1230am this morning NYC time, I noticed a divergence in ETH/USD and ETH/BTC. A significant divergence of 1.5 to 2.5% ETH/BTC over ETH/USD. Bitcoin was stagnant. ETH/USD was at $297_$298 at the time and slowly creeping toward $300 while ETH/BTC kept moving upward at a faster rate trying to punch through .074. After weeks of ETH following BTC every move, ETH began taking over on it's own. I knew the $320 break was coming, so I upped my margin to the max on ETH/USD and within minutes we were at $320. My point with all of this is that, based on the big picuture, this move was huge, we broke the BTC chain, broke $320, and are leading the market now. Big traders have moved out of BTC BCC and back into ETH. BTC is over 4k. I will say it again BTC is over 4k. So what does all of this mean? I think ETH is going to $650-$700, maybe $800 in the next month to 6 weeks. Just my two cents. Best of luck to all. And to each their own, just trying to give my perspective because I could have used this perspective years ago.
Ps. Marc you nailed it on the $345 today, great call! I personally took a lower percentage profit and am holding for higher. Keep posting! You have a great following and are benefiting many people!
MarcPMarkets
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@NoCode326, thank you for sharing your detailed perspective. I remember a few weeks back you were highlighting my hesitation to buy when it pushed into the 260s. ETH certainly stole the spot light and I agree the upside is still there. With an appropriate catalyst this market can reach well into the high 400s. We just have to wait and see. Thank you for the compliment.
moontumble
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Unquestionably the best ETH analyses out there by a country mile. Good on you, @MarcPMarkets!
MarcPMarkets
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@moontumble, thank you glad you find my analysis helpful.
koreanlaundry
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congrats on the rising follower count, i love your analysis and ability to contextualize it in a clear concise manner.
MarcPMarkets
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@koreanlaundry, thank you. It's nice to see that the community embraces my analysis. I want to provide helpful information and I'm glad people can use it.
achexx1
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Jpedwards1
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How do I follow you? Very good analysis!
MarcPMarkets
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@Jpedwards1, Thank you and glad you find my analysis helpful. Hehe just click on the follow button.
Some said they didn't understand why ETH moved rapidly higher last night. At about 12, 1230am this morning NYC time, I noticed a divergence in ETH/USD and ETH/BTC. A significant divergence of 1.5 to 2.5% ETH/BTC over ETH/USD. Bitcoin was stagnant. ETH/USD was at $297_$298 at the time and slowly creeping toward $300 while ETH/BTC kept moving upward at a faster rate trying to punch through .074. After weeks of ETH following BTC every move, ETH began taking over on it's own. I knew the $320 break was coming, so I upped my margin to the max on ETH/USD and within minutes we were at $320. My point with all of this is that, based on the big picuture, this move was huge, we broke the BTC chain, broke $320, and are leading the market now. Big traders have moved out of BTC BCC and back into ETH. BTC is over 4k. I will say it again BTC is over 4k. So what does all of this mean? I think ETH is going to $650-$700, maybe $800 in the next month to 6 weeks. Just my two cents. Best of luck to all. And to each their own, just trying to give my perspective because I could have used this perspective years ago.
Ps. Marc you nailed it on the $345 today, great call! I personally took a lower percentage profit and am holding for higher. Keep posting! You have a great following and are benefiting many people!