S&P500 - Long; For now ... untuk CME_MINI:ES1! oleh Nemo_Confidat

S&P500 - Long; For now ...

This naturally rimes with the Nasdaq signals and with the overall global equities outlook.

Here, two opposing forces are the most significant factor;
1) The unfolding (and enduring!) USD strength - Downward pressure;
2) The massive, continuously inbound (to US) capital flows, primarily from Europe - Upward pressure.

Driven by the rapidly unraveling globalization (driven by a Europe which the US decided to turn into a bonfire that is now clearly visible from Alpha-Centauri, and a China which is dying of old age as the demographic apocalypse is hitting hard this year - 2023), these fundamental forces will likely make this year one for the records - especially when it comes index (equities) trading.
Many, many trading opportunities to be expected, throughout this year, probably far more than in other periods.

Laissez le bon temp roule!! ...

Catatan

This thing is certainly at the cross roads and March is usually not an especially a good month for equities. HOWEVER, all signs here point to a Long Bias, coinciding with similar buy signals in the Nasdaq (NQ).
At this moment in time, this is an excellent place to enter LONG, given the clarity of the signals. This also means that very tight Stops can be utilized at these levels since any break, in either direction, is likely to be decisive. Thus, take advantage of this fact and load hard but with very tight stops - providing excellent R/R ratios in either direction. One must stay nimble here but opportunities abound.

Catatan

Buy it up! - LONG

Catatan

On an additional note;

This looks like its breaking out to the top side. This is normally bullish for the equity indexes.

Trading ditutup secara manual

Made some money here but ...

FLAT, for now.

Catatan

Da trading plan;

Short for now BUT get ready to buy up that Stop Hunt @3840 - something fierce!!

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

FLAT - for now. (-8 pts)

Trade aktif

Buy it up! - LONG

Trade aktif

LONG

Trade aktif

Buy it up! - LONG
(Bought an awful lot of ESJ 4200 Calls, yesterday, at the bottom.)

Catatan

There is an awful lot hanging over this;

SHORT

Trade aktif

SHORT

Catatan

This broke out (2 days ago) ...

... and so, it continues to be highly tradeable!! (Just follow the arrows.)
By the end of May the outcome of the purported Ukrainian "Spring offensive" should be quite visible, as well (unlikely to be beneficial for the US & Allies), making for a decisive, final (secondary) top in global equities.

Trade aktif

Just follow the arrows.

Trade aktif

This is a SHORT, right here!
How could one tell? ...
From this (NQ/SP);

... and, further more, this concurs, as well;

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Chances of an Index rally are quite high here because of this;

Switched to LONG for now with extremely tight stops!

Trading ditutup secara manual

FLAT for now.

Trade aktif

Massive SHORT

Catatan

This sucker is done!

LEAN INTO IT!! - SHORT

Catatan

Chances are ...

Catatan

Where was the SP500 at the end of April (2023)? ...

... and the year before that? ...
... and the year before that??

Catatan

“… and to ask whether we are in a bull market or a bear market is like asking Christopher Columbus whether he thinks the trees at the edge of the Earth are maples or pines.”
… not to mention, that the fundamental lack of an “end” attribute to the Earth itself easily supercedes any potentially ensuing biological classification debate.

“Of course, there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why or wherefore. It doesn’t go into explanations. I didn’t ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and I don’t ask it today at forty.” – Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

SHORT

Catatan

Continued from above - the Daily;

In other news ... Blasts from the past with strong, present day connotations;

The Nifty Fifty - Blue Chip performance between 1973-1974;
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Du Pont -58.4%
Exxon -46.9%
Ford Motor -64.8%
General Electric -60.5%
General Motors -71.2%
Goodyear -63.0%
IBM -58.8%
McDonalds -72.4%
Mobil -59.8%
Motorola -54.3%
PepsiCo -67.0%
Philip Morris -50.3%
Polaroid -90.2%
Sears -66.2%
Sony -80.9%
Westinghouse -83.1%

Market periods during the past 100 years in which US Treasury Bonds outperformed the total, net return of the S&P 500 ;
----------------------------------------------
1929-1950, 1968-1987 and 1998-2020.
I.e. a total of 43 years out of 95 (starting from 1928) or in 45% of the time!

Catatan

This is clearly a mixed bag, at this point;

With the massive flight of the European heavy industrial base to US soil, it is a "European aid package" pouring into the US, the likes that rarely - if ever - seen in the past. - And there is no end in sight.

... and while the Nasdaq is clearly topping out here;

SHORT

There is every logical reason to expect the most sizable rotation of all.
E.g., This is the one to watch;

... which is clearly topping out here, as well.

Catatan

An other telling spread to look at is this one;

... which is clearly in a down-trend.
Normally, this one should be in an up-trend if one was to anticipate future S&P strength but (way!) over-leverage being where it is, this is also indicative of the massive de-levering that must take place before any fundamental value is represented by any of the equity indexes. (I.e. a -50% indexes decline, at some point before the next cycle, is a foregone conclusion!)

Catatan

What d'ya thenk, Long or Short Bias?? ...
(... and No, there isn't a 4th option! ;-)

Catatan

This one is now just clinging to the remnants of an already burst bubble;

... making that 4630 an awfully fat Short Entry target - if it even gets there?
Play it as it lays but just keep looking down!

Catatan

According to the best mathematician in the world

Scott Carney's "Deep Crab" & the Fields Medal in Mathematics

there is an upcoming Short here;

I'll bite!

Catatan

DJIA/Gold;

Interestingly, this eerily (but not all that surprisingly) matches exactly the projected 12 year (full-cycle; correlation coeff. -> 0 in 12.5 years) nominal return of a traditional portfolio mix (60/30/10 SP500 + T-Bonds + T-Bills). E.g., The DJIA (and the SP500 and the Nasdaq) is expected to lose 56% of it's value. (Those are all expected to end up in the same place.)

Catatan

Upon closer examination of the DJIA/Gold (above);

There is already a clearly visible break (dispersion) in this spread - normally an indication of equities falling into a 'stochastic sink'. (Translation: Narrow equities leadership aimlessly jumping around before a radical shift, e.g. a phase-transition)

Catatan

US (and World) Equity Indexes are in full rotation;

... at the end of which they all point to the mid-2019 lows - I.e, -50%, across the board. (Nasdaq leadership works both ways! ;-)

Catatan

A notable aspect of cypher patterns' is that they frequently indicate a lateral move across price channels - as is the case here. This would also imply that once such a lateral move is completed anywhere other than at the bottom supporting trend line, it is often the mark of price extremes, foreshadowing a major price reversal. When this happens on long(er) time frames (as is the case here), it is an accurate forecast of such a price extremes 71%-83% of the time (dependent on the cypher pattern in question).
Naturally, the Nasdaq is already leading the equities reversal - and thus, it is the preferred SHORT for now.

Catatan

The big-picture - Quarterly - view of the SP500;

It is a typical picture where it is trying to cling to the suds of yesterday's already burst bubble. SHORT

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

We have hit our Long Target here, exactly, for +632 pts in net profits.
Now well padded with fresh cash, it is time to turn around and go SHORT

Catatan

Chances are ...

Trade aktif

SHORT

Catatan

All aboard!

Nice, symmetric reaction. Massive SHORT

Trade aktif

This looks extremely topish here! (Inline with the other equity indexes.)

SHORT

Catatan

There is also a decisive break going on in here, for quite some time now;

... which is just one more bad omen for equities.

Catatan

A decisive technical break down.

Catatan

As is often the case with these wave formations ...

... the Time & Price forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate.
The "mandatory" 38%-50% retrecement of the last leg almost completed, continue to load SHORT off of the 50 period ema.

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Considering the season and the bottom of the channel ...

... we covered our Shorts here and took +140 pts profit off the table, for now.
FLAT. Wait-and-see ...

Catatan

Not very complicated.

Catatan

Traveling by-the-numbers, exactly! - As this has been doing for about a year, by now.
Continue to lean into it Short!

p.s. For some strange reason there seems to be a debate out there whether a H&S exists in the SP500? ...
"It doesn't really matter", would be one correct answer, since the Russel2000 has completed one, already! E.g. all equities are in a confirmed, full dive!

Catatan

After having filled that Gap, chances are ... Follow the arrows!

Catatan

Nice reaction at all the right places.

Trade aktif

Look at them arrows! ;-)

It doesn't get any easier than this.

Catatan

Nasdaq [NQ] - SHORT

Chugging right along.

Catatan

Still SHORT but tightening those Stops, a lot as this is getting close to the PRZ!
If you followed us then you're also up a cool +400 pts just since Sept. 23😎

Nemo_Confidat

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