A false brake out started the day. We are still under the 18ma on the daily and weekly charts. For me, the next target should be the lower daily BB around 3750.
We are embedded bearish on the slow stochastic so the idea that we can grind down hard into later January or early February is certainly possible. I also share some ideas on bear market rules which is good to consider in general as we are probably going to be in an extended one with little bull markets here and there.
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they didn't sell overnight, so possibly another run to the MA's above. I'm still suspicious of any move up. Over these ma's and they probably want to get to the bollinger band near 4k.
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fed minutes at 2pm, expect a whipsaw - up then down or down then up
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put call still at lows
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bias on vix still positive (above 18ma daily)
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blue trendline on /ES may get hit again - that's where the cluster of daily ma's are as well.
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If (a big IF) we continue selling to or near the lower BB (3750ish) this count should be considered.
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As of now the reaction to fomc is looking like a smaller abc structure.