At this point, USDollar index has reached a significant bearish entrenchment level. Transgression of this level would open the roof up to higher-highs, starting with a probable 1.618 extension as a point of termination for a 5th wave. However, what is occurring at the moment resembles more an Elliott Wave 5th wave truncation.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
Predictive/forecasting model is turning to the bear side at this moment and provides its own targets, as follow:
1 - TG-Lo = 89.27 - 11 FEB 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 88.26 - 11 FEB 2015
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
Internal to the Elliott Wave's presumed truncation is the geometric development of a Triple-Top pattern, composed of an initial down-swing parabola, followed by a deeper-swing parabola.
This pattern is better known as a Kiss of Death ("KoD"), carrying some probability of sending price down to a level that should be lower than the lowest of the two parabola.
STRUCTURAL: ANALYSIS:
As the KoD defines its nadir at 93.26, this level aligns with a prior structural-top, this defining the resistance-turned-support ("R/S") mantra of a classic pivot level. This level could well be kept in sight by the most conservative player, although a bolder trade is offered by a richer RR ratio from the current level in which KoD completed (point-3 in purple).
OVERALL:
Standard geometry (triple-top), advanced pattern (KoD) and proprietary model are favoring a decline from this level. A break of 95.48 level should serve as a trigger to abandon any immediate bearish scenario. However, the current level offers a generous RR that would be hard to resist.
If price did roll in the direction that would breach the nadir of KoD, it would effectively define a new structural level confirming a directional bias and thus opening the floor to stilll distant prop targets.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
DXY speculative retrace to form point 4 of Wolfe Wave....please critique David.
4xForecaster
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@iefan - It appears solid, especially if you back it up with a larger geometry, whose 1-3 Line would run through your current 1-3 Line, whereby your point-1 would constitute its point-3, and your point-3 its quasi-point-5. At least, it appears to offer these landmarks - David
iefan
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Thanks very much David, trying to incorporate your earlier post or Nodules...... am I barking up the right tree?
4xForecaster
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Hello @iefan - That range has already been absorbed by price action "in front of it", so there is no expected impact on price. Plus, nodes and nodules are mid-segmental, not at the top or bottom of a price action.
If you are looking at one in particular, the mid-segment between points 4 and 5 offers a probable NODE or nodule, depending whether the retracement from bottom of geometry to top represents a 0.382 retracement relative to Point-4.
David
iefan
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Thank you David, please feel free to delete the post of mine above as I don't want to confuse the thread with inaccurate charts. I'm working on the next one :)
4xForecaster
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@iefan - That's fine by me. It offers an example of do's and dont's - To keep charts arranged on topic, simply post as a reply under the corresponding chart, this will help others read that internal thread topic linearly.
David
4xForecaster
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23 FEB 2015 - Update:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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DXY eyes yet another bullish elan; 95.23 Bears strongest; Bearish tgts intact; Invalid > 95.48:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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DXY - Significant push-back at bearish entrenchment level of 95.00; Bearish outlook:
@TradingView USD #usdollar
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David Alcindor