To validate my SP500 count I looked into DJI and was pleasantly surprised to see that most of my previous labelling stands. Where DJI has diverged from SP500 is that it seems to be developing a more robust and clear ABC structure with a nice, pronounced expanding triangle in the middle as wave B. It should be noted that EW rules treat expanding triangle as the rarest out of three. Here, however, I think we are dealing with one of them.
If the analysis correct the market shall immediately sell off in wave 3 of C to a strong support level of 27470 formed by historical support/resistance and Fibo relationships.
Hi Deus , DJIA seems stable at 34,180 , not choosing a clear path as long as corporate results season is not finished . Do you have some clues , some technical moves showing a light on its evolution ? Tank you for your ideas . Best Ray
RayCharles
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Do not worry , we shall drink it anyway. Have you made a kind of time forecast for this slide from 33.700 ( current ) to 27,000 ?
@Fomenka , Well time forecast is merely a sequence in time from one level to the next . I guess it wont go straight in a one line without stop here , pullback there, and these stages are taking time. Maybe Fibonacci tools are useful to establish such scenario ( which are only scenarios ) ?
Fomenka
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@RayCharles, ah... Timing is the most difficult with my technique. Also, DJI chart looks pretty simple and robust. Nasdaq and SP500 do not offer the same level of simplicity and confidence. I shuttle between those three every day now, trying to puzzle out what could be the ultimate scenario that satisfies all the rules for each of them. No luck so far. As far as I get the chart I will post it.
Fomenka
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@RayCharles, e.g. in sp500 the base case now is this which is different from DJI. Sorry for the crude chart. Will polish it later.
Nasdaq looks similar but wave B terminated above 0-x line which should not be the case. And that keeps me agonizing over the charts reconciling these incosnistencies.
RayCharles
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Hi Fomenka , it was a very nice short from 33900 down to 33300 ; Prosecco is waiting for you , here in Italy . Let me now if you pass near Bologna or Florence. Today DJIA at 33750 ; how is your current view ? Thank you Philippe
Fomenka
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@RayCharles, Philippe, hey. The view is unchanged so far ))) But please be careful following my charts, these are not trading plans but rough ideas to document my thinking and improve. If correct and we go to 27000 please do save a bottle for me. Once I travel to Italy I will hit your place to drink it.
RayCharles
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Hi Deus-Fomenka, I applied your plan : short DJIA at 33960 ; let's meet to uncork champagne much lower !