Idea for Macro: - Oil is in a downtrend, at the resistance. - Current price inflation and USD devaluation is an attempt to inflate it over the resistance. It will fail. - When Oil reverses, USD will reverse. - Talking heads talking about beginning tapering talks, talking about inflation, talking about deflationary shocks EOY or next year...
No, it is already here.
Deflationary shock comes first.
Taking the contrarian position: - Short Credit - Short Equities - Short Gold - Short Oil - Short Housing - Short Crypto - Long Volatility
If the dollar continues its fall, that would be bullish for oil right? Or is it not relevant since we produce a lot of our own oil at home.
UnknownUnicorn1043646
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@parkerq00, Yes it would be bullish, but I think dollar will have a reversal pretty soon
alsmoo42
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@DarkPoolTrading, I agree the dollar is at an inflection point against many of the majors, if it swings to dollar strength it would suggest increased volatility and a run on safe heaven money, or if it flips and the EUR,GBP etc run up and we see dollar weakness , which will be hard with the bottom put in , but could still happen. however we are seeing current strength in JPY and CHF too suggesting a US shock per hap? the s and p 500 has stuck at this level a while, the r2k has done well though, so is this a bull pen perhaps? anyway thanks for the time and perspective