Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin from the 4-day timeframe perspective. In recent times Bitcoin has shown up with heavy volatilities and increased spreads that should not be underestimated. At the same time, the regulatory voices against Bitcoin have become much more hostile and governments considering to ban Bitcoin or restricting it has become normal. Besides that, the overall economic situation is also shaky and in any case not what it was back before the corona pandemic hit financial markets. An increased inflation rate currently has the effect that more capital is flowing into the markets however if inflation should accelerate more this can have the reversed effect. Besides that, the FED decision upon a balance sheet decrease, stopping of the buyout programs, and possible increase of interest rates can hit markets bearishly as well. In this case, it is inevitable to take a look at the technical factors and this is what I am doing in this analysis, therefore, I detected all the important levels and determinations to consider.
Structural Developments: Looking at my chart now we can watch there how Bitcoin is developing a massive crucial decisive formation that should not in any case kept from the desk here. As it is seen in my chart Bitcoin has begun to form this paramount ascending wedge formation, such an ascending has a higher tendency to form a devastating bearish reversal of the previously established bullish trend, this possibility is currently omnipresent together with the economical and restriction dynamics. In this whole formation, Bitcoin has already completed the waves A to D with the ending of wave D currently penetrating the lower boundary of the wedge formation from where a bounce has a higher potential now. This bounce will move on with the wave E and once this wave has emerged the final determinations will come when Bitcoin approaches the upper boundary of the ascending wedge formation again because BTC in this upper boundary has the main resistance cluster from where a pullback is likely which will accelerate bearish dynamics together with the decreasing volatility circle and the supply levels in this area.
Upcoming Determinations: Taking all these factors into the consideration now what will be important here is to watch firstly on how the whole economical situation evolves because when the FED announces to finally decrease the balance sheet and begins with it this will affect the supply dynamics of Bitcoin and in the consequence also the whole pattern has a higher possibility to finalize. The second thing to watch is how Bitcoin moves in this formation because if heavy bearishness is leading to Bitcoin severely pulling back in the formation especially after approaching some little higher this will also increase the likelihood of Bitcoin completing the whole formation. Therefore for now it will be necessary to keep patient and watch out how the situation moves forward, the best thing in such cases is to possibly take opportunities on a short or middle term basis with swing trades or similar rather than just overspeculating the whole market into a one-sighted direction and rushing into the market in and out. In this manner it will be crucial to keep up to date and see how the market dynamics swift to be prepared on the scenarios mentioned, it will be an interesting development ahead.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate rather than to speculate."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Thanks for lovely charts man. You are one of the very few people I actually take a look at!
AlanSantana
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Nice chart as usual. Keep up the great work.
WQPortfolios
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You are significantly misreading the fundamentals my friend. Your bearish view here is quite shortsighted. 1. Economic growth and earnings growth is projected to be solid throughout 2022, the market has fully priced in the expectation of both tapering and fed rates beginning to not rise, but NORMALIZE. The economy strength does not require this additional liquidity. There is almost no chance of anything banning proof of work mining, and the regulatory environment is no worse than it was all through 2021 as we faced very real possibilities of a full ban in India all year.
unknownpower
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you never fail to entertain, bearish one day, next day bullish, patterns that never play out, zero engagement with comments, etc. Just go hit play on his charts, 90% are totally and utterly wrong. I am no master analyst myself, but I dont try to sell snake oil to anyone
TheSignalyst
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18k is pessimistic. First we need to break the 30k. let's see
consciousMeerk65747
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nice analysis!
Ali-Mani
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I agree with you. Fundamental factors are against the bull market, so it's the time to go back to technical factors to figure out how deep bitcoin can go!
KlejdiCuni
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Probably BTC finished the deep correction and it can move higher very soon. Hope we will see any price recovery soon.
Sobs4Crypto
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I agree. I've been jumping in and out over the last few days with little momentum swing trades but nothing more than that since we haven't really moved. Seems obvious but if we break (and hold) 40k, I think we'll see that relief rally that many are hoping for.