This is just an interesting comparison, something like this would absolutely wipe out everyone, and reset things, as far as sentiment goes, whilst giving a great opportunity to long term buyers to accumulate BTC at really low levels, if things came to pass like they did for AMZN back in the 2000 top. In this theoretical scenario, price would go sideways during 1 year, to then crash in a slow bleed, falling to levels only seen at the start of the rally coming out of the 2015 lows...
As a result of this, and regulations, and the disappearance of all the wild leverage traders, and exchanges, maybe volatility settles down, and BTC starts acting like a tech stock, eventually reaching prices over $1,000,000 in the next 10-15 years. Something like this would give us a great opportunity, both on the short side, and then on the long side, if things do come to pass in this manner, and would definitely frustrate a lot of people who bought into BTC, and believes in the HODL religion. These beliefs will likely change or disappear, by the time it bottoms.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: My forecast is still for a sideways 2018, and possible sideways 2019, but we could indeed get a bear market too, the rules of Time At Mode imply the long term bull market ended, and we will wither go sideways, or crash back to $442, or close to it. It seems wild now, but it is entirely possible still. Better be open to anything happening, and not biased and blinded by our greed. Shout out to Tim West, who mentioned this overlay, as something worth looking into.
Komentar
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Interesting that how the timing for sideways action ending and a vertical trend starting was correct, Sep 2020 from this chart, I expected the sideways period to end by 2020 overall.
Could definitely see this happening. Both sides, long and short would likely get really hurt here. That is what ultimately needs to happen. Market has a tendency to inflict the most damage to as many participants involved.
IvanLabrie
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@Lanmar, yes, that is the best way to forecast: 'how can this screw the most people possible?'
According to your chart, it's better to short than long.
IvanLabrie
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@Rombit, shorts can only make you 100% return if the thing goes to 0...long returns are potentially a lot better. It's always better to go long when safe. But, I would short if it's clear in the short term, we will get a drop.
This is just a possibility, if matching the internet stocks since 1999.
tearliner
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@IvanLabrie, this guy doesn't seem to know what short and long is lol... jesus christ...
IvanLabrie
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@tearliner, we don't have to know everything but it's good to ask. I didn't know when I started either...
tearliner
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@IvanLabrie, I am talking about you. If you take x5 leverage and price drops to half you make 500% returns, if you take x10 leverage and price drops to half you make 1000% returns. Price doesn't have to drop to $0 to make money.... do some basic research before you post your idea
tearliner
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@tearliner, i mean price doesn't have to drop to $0 to get 100% returns
IvanLabrie
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@tearliner, basic research? You're kidding right? I never said over leverage... It comes with risks. Trading BTC with positions bigger than 100% is very risky. I don't like to trade with such huge size, stops would have to be very tight and it would reduce the win rate and stresses me out and takes time I'd rather use in other markets or training.