I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / Death cross with 9 and 34 MA’s, close below symmetrical triangle and a breakdown of horizontal support triggered a full entry
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 and short ETH:USD from $205.20
Patterns: $5,600 target from symmetrical triangle was hit within 48 hours of breakdown
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,522 | R: $5,875 - $6,150
BTCUSDSHORTS: Bouncing hard and fast but still plenty of room to go before resistance
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.224% (wow!)
Short term trend (3 day MA): bearish
Medium term trend (8 day MA): bearish
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bearish
Overall trend: Death cross provided an ideal short entry yesterday evening.
Volume: Finally!!!! If anyone tries to say that this is a bear trap / shakeout before breakout then refer them to the daily volume. When using a combo of the 5 major USD exchanges this is the highest we have seen in ~ 3 months.
FIB’s: (High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th')
Candlestick analysis: 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h appears to be lining up with my horizontal resistance at $5,868
TD’ Sequential: Today closed a red 7 and we just opened a red 8
Visible Range: Gap in volume at $5,000 makes me think there will not be the support there that most expect
Price action: 24h: -10.24% | 2w: -10.59% | 1m: -9.28%
Bollinger Bands: Dat' bulge we have all been waiting for : )
Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Took out every last down fractal from 2018
RSI: Record low! High alert for bearish divergence. One one other time daily RSI was < 19.6 and a 18.32% bounce followed. If that happens again then price would rally to $6,332 (probably while alts have a flight to safety) and that would create a very similar bear trap that we saw in 2014 - 2015.
Stochastic: Monthly is falling into oversold territory. Monthly buy signal + RSI < 45 will be strong indicators of the bottom. Should be combined with weekly RSI < 30. All things to pay close attention to.
Summary: Already took profit on 25% of my BTC’ and ETH’ shorts due to RSI reaching record lows along with the daily TD 8 opening (will often get a 1-4 candle correction on a 7 or an 8 instead of a 9).
Now I am preparing for three options: a bounce that retests $5,868 - $6,150 for resistance. If that happens then I will be considering it the highest probability entry of the year. I expect there to be so big volume waiting to exit their longs at that price range.
Nevertheless I am paying close attention to the bear trap that followed the support breakdown in the 2014 - 2015 bubble (see charts above). The markets have a strong propensity to rekt both bulls and bears whenever possible. A short term bounce back to $6,300 would do exactly that and it is something to prepare for.
The main catalyst that could cause that is a flight from safety out of alts and back into BTC’. Could also see another pump caused by traders exiting Tether. That premium is back to 5% and has been inflating the price on USDT exchanges.
The last option I am watching for is a divergence in the daily RSI like the one that followed the last time it reached < 19.6. If that happens then I plan on exiting 80% - 100% of my position with the intention to re open at 10% - 18% higher.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / Death cross with 9 and 34 MA’s, close below symmetrical triangle and a breakdown of horizontal support triggered a full entry
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 and short ETH:USD from $205.20
Patterns: $5,600 target from symmetrical triangle was hit within 48 hours of breakdown
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,522 | R: $5,875 - $6,150
BTCUSDSHORTS: Bouncing hard and fast but still plenty of room to go before resistance
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.224% (wow!)
Short term trend (3 day MA): bearish
Medium term trend (8 day MA): bearish
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bearish
Overall trend: Death cross provided an ideal short entry yesterday evening.
Volume: Finally!!!! If anyone tries to say that this is a bear trap / shakeout before breakout then refer them to the daily volume. When using a combo of the 5 major USD exchanges this is the highest we have seen in ~ 3 months.
FIB’s: (High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th')
Candlestick analysis: 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h appears to be lining up with my horizontal resistance at $5,868
TD’ Sequential: Today closed a red 7 and we just opened a red 8
Visible Range: Gap in volume at $5,000 makes me think there will not be the support there that most expect
Price action: 24h: -10.24% | 2w: -10.59% | 1m: -9.28%
Bollinger Bands: Dat' bulge we have all been waiting for : )
Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Took out every last down fractal from 2018
RSI: Record low! High alert for bearish divergence. One one other time daily RSI was < 19.6 and a 18.32% bounce followed. If that happens again then price would rally to $6,332 (probably while alts have a flight to safety) and that would create a very similar bear trap that we saw in 2014 - 2015.
Stochastic: Monthly is falling into oversold territory. Monthly buy signal + RSI < 45 will be strong indicators of the bottom. Should be combined with weekly RSI < 30. All things to pay close attention to.
Summary: Already took profit on 25% of my BTC’ and ETH’ shorts due to RSI reaching record lows along with the daily TD 8 opening (will often get a 1-4 candle correction on a 7 or an 8 instead of a 9).
Now I am preparing for three options: a bounce that retests $5,868 - $6,150 for resistance. If that happens then I will be considering it the highest probability entry of the year. I expect there to be so big volume waiting to exit their longs at that price range.
Nevertheless I am paying close attention to the bear trap that followed the support breakdown in the 2014 - 2015 bubble (see charts above). The markets have a strong propensity to rekt both bulls and bears whenever possible. A short term bounce back to $6,300 would do exactly that and it is something to prepare for.
The main catalyst that could cause that is a flight from safety out of alts and back into BTC’. Could also see another pump caused by traders exiting Tether. That premium is back to 5% and has been inflating the price on USDT exchanges.
The last option I am watching for is a divergence in the daily RSI like the one that followed the last time it reached < 19.6. If that happens then I plan on exiting 80% - 100% of my position with the intention to re open at 10% - 18% higher.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/