BTCUSD update: Price is retracing off of the 11700 high, but what is more important to notice is the bearish pin bar that formed and it's low compromised. This bearish signal was one of the scenarios I was anticipating at or near the bearish trend line. What does this mean?
I published a quick update that said I sold 15% of my position. I did NOT exit my entire position, all I did was lock in some profit which was part of my plan if you read the details of my previous reports. I am still bullish, but I am simply following best practices: sell into strength. Locking in some profit is never a bad idea, and it reduces risk. If you don't understand this, then greed drives your perspective. It also means you have not learned anything from the 20K sell off.
Do I think this market is going higher? Yes. I locked in some profit just in case the retrace becomes more pronounced which is still possible. In fact, the bullish trend line was tested at the 10680 low and held which is a sign of strength. The problem is this market needs to establish a bullish reversal pattern in the current price location, otherwise it may break the trend line.
If the trend line breaks, is that the start of a new bearish move? Not necessarily. It just means momentum is becoming less bullish. If there is a break and decisive close below the trend line, I will be watching for the 9604 level (.382 of current bullish swing) as the next support for a bullish reversal and place to add to my position trade.
In summary, my choice to sell 15% of my position was not a reaction. It was a predetermined adjustment that I described ahead of time, which required the market to show a certain condition, and it appeared. Emotion does not drive my decisions, my well defined plan does instead. I was interested in selling around 11400 but instead of placing a limit order earlier, I chose to give the market a chance to go further. This is the trade off that we must always face when in these situations. I can place a limit order and sell too early if the market goes straight to 12K, or I can give the market a chance in which case I may get less than 11400 if I use a candle low as my trigger to take profit. There is no perfect way to do this. Your choice here is a function of your risk tolerance. I still have 85% of my position, so what if I make a little less as the market goes higher, and I will add back to it IF the market gives me that opportunity. Managing a position trade is like managing inventory, and I just locked in some "retail" prices at a potential peak.
I hope you keep doing what you are doing. I believe you are one of the few people here that we can learn a lot from. Thanks for your time and analysis.
Acel
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@vitruvius, Indeed, probably the best on price action.
Only weakness i can see is lack of fall back plan. But i guess being good at price action makes you act instantly and not expecting it before it happens.
noideaihave
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"There is no perfect way to do this. Your choice here is a function of your risk tolerance." This is how it is, not like all those that post 'immature' extremes of each trade. Its a careful considered assessment. Thanks for your analysis :)
CryptoKyle03
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Till Buy at 9600
KISStheProfit
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I am very certain yet that heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are part of this pump and dump scam together with some lobby groups of well paid by whales senators! They pumped this up with their hearing, and there isnews that some lobbiests from the senate are trying to push the process for addoption the scams everywhere! Paid with the billions of retail noobs that lost money here. I hope that the bigger scammers of FED will crash them soon, and real intermediate alternative pops up.
deco_in
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great post @MarcPMarkets ..." bullish trend line was tested at the 10680"... question is u said " I will be watching for the 9604 level (.382 of current bullish swing) as the next support for a bullish reversal"
isnt there 10405 level (,236 fib) before 9604?
or is it small diffr. between 10680 and 10405 thats why u dont see it
SilverStar_Trading
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No this was a simple bounce from the recent bear trend and we are now back on track to $3500-$5000... Plain as day Bull trap
oooooooMiKa
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9600 was a nice call. As always your TA is very helpfull - especially with the balanced perspective of bull and bear. Thank you
BRRD
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With a bit of luck today it looks like you nailed it to the cent on Bitstamp.