Hello BITCOIN traders. Here I have a chart with all indicators we need to check that the bears are taking the control of the trend. Analyzing Weekly time frame and all other indicators but 365 MA daily are in weekly time frame.
Starting from the top to the bottom:
ADX and DI: ADX is used to quantify trend strength. ADX calculations are based on a moving average of price range expansion over a given period of time. When the +DMI (Light blue) is above the -DMI (Red), prices are moving up, and ADX (Dark blue)measures the strength of the uptrend. When the -DMI is above the +DMI, prices are moving down, and ADX measures the strength of the downtrend. In the chart we have the -DMI above the +DMI, exactly what happened in the previous bear cycles.
Log MACD: Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. Log MACD in this case is the difference between Log of Moving Avarages. If you pay attention, LMACD touched the top at a resistance level and started dumping. In previous bear cycles, once we crossed the 0 in the indicator, we turned to a bear cycle. As happening now.
RSI: The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. Last time the weekly RSI accumulated below the 50 level of the indicator, we started a bear cycle.
Elders Force Index: Dr. Alexander Elder is one of the contributors to a newer generation of technical indicators. His force index is an oscillator that measures the force, or power, of bulls behind particular market rallies and of bears behind every decline. The three key components of the force index are the direction of price change, the extent of the price change, and the trading volume. When the force index is used in conjunction with a moving average, the resulting figure can accurately measure significant changes in the power of bulls and bears. In this way, Elder has taken an extremely useful solitary indicator, the moving average, and combined it with his force index for even greater predictive success. If you pay attention, the EFI diverged and we need a bear market to start converging again.
From the chart:
Gaussian Channel: Gaussian filters, as Ehlers explains it, are simply exponential moving averages applied multiple times. Every time we touch the top of Gaussian channel, we are in bear market. We make a final bounce up, but later we dump to the bottom of the channel and even below.
365 MA daily : The black line on the chart shows that every time we touch the 365 MA daily we eventually cross below it and we are in a bear cycle.
Conclusion: a final bounce up is probable, though is not a guarantee. Last bear cycles before hitting the bear market, we made a last bull trap. So, before really dumping to lower levels, 20k and even below, we can make a final bounce up.
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@without_worries, last time I posted ETH at 250 was bullish you said it was bearish. Now I am bearish at these higher levels you are completely bullish? watch my analysis to understand my point of view if you are interested
@without_worries, I am bearish yes and still bearish. the question is why you are asking
without_worries
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@Guapeva, Even with Stochastic RSI crossing up 20 on the weekly after 150 days below? I don't think it has ever been that low in all of BTC's history.
Guapeva
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@without_worries, many other indicators are bearish. If you are interested you can watch my videos. One of them is this one when I mentioned about the final pullback.
Great analysis. I think we will see slight increases and then a hard rejection on the 1D 55EMA around 35.5k where I will probably take a short position. I still see a 20k - 25K BTC.
Apaulsen35
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One of the most comprehensive analysis I have ever seen. 🙏👍