I entered a long with a pretty bad entry in hindsight. Hidden Bullish Divergence on 4h RSI and MACD about to turn green for the first time since Feb 10.
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Trade doing good so far and i got to give credits to mitch ray for this trade, and apologize for sharin this trade ii will only post my 100% own ideas and trades in the future :)
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At this Point we can clearly see that buyers absorbin the remaining supply around the 50k level once this level gets broken i believe we will see a substantial rise in price and the demand and fomo will increase even more.
As long as Bitcoin can hold the 48200 level below, it will eventually break the 50k level and probably reach the first target pretty fast.
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RSI Trendline just got broken with 4h candle close confirmation and the first positive histogram on the MACD is finally showing.
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BTC had the highest daily close yesterday and just now closed its highest 4h candle ever.
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BTC seems to be holding the 21 ema on the 4h as support for now but still workin on absorbin all the sell orders at the 49700 - 50100 level while the price drops loosing strength. It could be argued that this is ascending triangle behaviour.
However if BTC fails to break this level in the next hours, i expect another sell off below 49k most likely to the 48680 level (last weekly candle close) or even to the 48200 level which provided support and resistance before.
Lets see what the close of the Asia session and the start of the London Session has in store for BTC.
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Bitcoin just made a new ATH like expected after holdin above 48680 and smashin thru the sell wall at 50k. Now the next question is if BTC can hold this level and turn the former resistance around 49700 into support.
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Comment: Changed the simple demand and supply lines which i saw in Mitchs stream back into a parallel channel since it fits perfectly and could be used by trading bots much better than simple trendlines. Whats also fascinating about the parallel channel is that BTC never closed a 4h below the heartline ever since it crossed it to the upside on Feb. 8 which is pretty impressive. You can find this channel in my previous idea.
Bitcoin also broke the supply line of the wedge and will most likely continue to the top of the channel if it can close at least a 1h close above it might even turn it into support.
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Breakin a rising Wedge to the upside again is extremly bullish especially since BTC consolidated a couple days inside of it at these high levels and btc easily could have had a sell off like BTC always did in the past before this bullrun started. It shows clearly that the demand is still very high and bearish patterns like rising wedges or bearish divergences are very weak.
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Bitcoin broke the supply line of the narrowing channel/rising wedge inside the parallel channel. It already performed a backtest and is now trading confident over 51k. Since i changed my analysis back to my first idea of the parallel channel instead of a ascending broadening wedge, the profit taking level has also changed for the first target from 55300$ to 52400$ which then doesn't meet the criteria of a 3:1 RR. Thats why im going to keep the trade running for Target 2 and 3 and only close earlier if the Chart tells me to. Thanks to VincePrince's inspiration i now believe, that in these extreme bullish conditions, BTC could break above the channel and hold it as support, like it did on the break above 25k on 12/26/2020 and the backtest on 12/29/2020.
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8hours later and the trade is still running and so far the 51k level held surprisingly well. the longer we stay above 51k, the higher the likelihood of testing the top of the supply line of the parallel channel (not visible in this chart - check the updated chart) and maybe even breaking above the supply line and in the best case turn it into a new demand line.
The daily MACD histogram just started gaining positive momentum again.
The only thing that concerns me is the 3d and the 2d could develop severe bearish divergence if bitcoin decides to stall here.
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CNBC 1h ago just posted this very bullish news for BTC:
"BlackRock’s Rick Rieder says the world’s largest asset manager has ‘started to dabble’ in bitcoin"
I was waiting for BlackRock for a long time to get into the Cryptospace couple Weeks ago they anounced to start a Crypto Fund which i found very exciting. BlackRock the biggest Asset Manager worldwide, got a super-computer called Aladin which can process huge amounts of Data which leads to their investment decisions. If this super-computer told them BTC is the way to go and they only invested a couple billions then we can expect a 100k+ BTC very soon.
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BTC just broke 52k!
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On Binance Futures my trade just has reached the first (adjusted) profit taking level at 52630 which i already decided before not to take profits, if nothing on the chart points to lower prices. The Oscillators all got much more room to run and i can't see any divergences or other chart patterns which would encourage me to close 1/3 of the trade right now.
With all this bullish news like: "Microstrategy is borrowing $900 million at 0% to buy more Bitcoin." and BlackRock probably allready accumulating billions worth of BTC, while Grayscale buy multiples of the new mined coins everyday, i really dont want to close even a small percentage of this trade until we are nearing the 2nd Profit takin level at 59k.
If we have a sell off i will look at this as a major opportunity and most likely will open up a new trade and let this trade run as a long term trade aiming for the 1.618 at 64850 and beyond.
im seeing a similar thing...are you trading with Mitch?
and got in when it last hit trend line at 47.4
why bad entry?
luyestefan
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@colehatcherphotograhpy, yes i learned most of my analysis of mitch and so i also came to almost the same conclusions of the patterns since the start of this months rally. its funny that i had the bullflag idea and the acceleration of the demand inside the wedge or channel both on my own and had it allready charted when i watched the stream later. for example i changed my parallel channel to a ascending broadening channel even tho i think the parallel channel makes more sense to me.
i got to admit it was wrong to share this trading idea since it was out of mitchs patreon and not my idea. i just started to use tradingview to publish my TA ideas and didnt expect no one to look at it but wanted to use it more as a trading diary for myself. anyway thanks for reading my post about it and giving feedback. in the future i will only share my 100% own ideas :)
luyestefan
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@colehatcherphotograhpy, my entry was the same as in the trade setup around 49000 then almost instantly btc shot up to 51k and i set my stop loss on the entry price. when i came back from makin coffe my trade was gone and i lost some money because of the market fill was 100$ below my stop loss price. i reentered the trade with 5x leverage without checkin the small timeframes 5min and 15min to time a better entry, when shortly after price dropped and i was underwater for a couple hours.
colehatcherphotograhpy
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@luyestefan, wild. thanks for sharing. amazing what a poorly timed blink can do
Agora_Anarchy_Action
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Just out of curiosity: I see a bearish divergence, does the hidden divergence overwrite that?
luyestefan
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@Agora_Anarchy_Action, in this case yes i think the hidden divergence is more powerful and that the bearish divergence on the 4h allready played out and didnt lead to a real trendchange since we only made a higher low so far. In my experience bearish divergence is the more powerful if its made a real visible first hump above 80 and then on the second at least is above 70 like we saw on the first rally to 40k and then the lower high on jan. 15. . Also if its displayed only on RSI and not on MACD or vis versa, i dont give it to much weight. But i still believe that we should keep a eye on the D 2D and 3D which has much more weight than the 4h.
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@luyestefan, You were def right on this call. I was hesitant to open a long but now I'm kicking myself.
luyestefan
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@Agora_Anarchy_Action, thank you i really appreciate you coming back to comment on the idea. yeah i know the feeling of missing out on a trade, i also missed the obvious long entry for bitcoin around 32k. but dont worry there will always be a new trade waiting for you to take advantage off. the most important thing is to stay focused/disciplined while waiting for the next opportunity to present itself. In the mean time you can scan the charts and prepare everything for the next trade that could be even better :)
and got in when it last hit trend line at 47.4
why bad entry?