This is my Elliott Wave count on this pair. Let's see if it will unfold as expected. Nice possibility to gain some pips from the wave 3 move. ROE on the chart.
Please have in mind to make your own analysis before jumping into any trade opportunity!
Komentar
timwest
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I don't see an extended wave of i or iii or v in your 5-wave decline (an error in EW). They all look about the same length.
Koryphaeen
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Thanks for the thoughts! Do you have any suggestion for an alternative count for the decline? As in my opinion, if wave 3 isn't the shortest it's still a valid count respecting the EW rules. The most important part of this chart however is the last part, the corrective waves since price action will move away from there.. In case in which my declining waves count isn't correct (or it contains some counting errors), the final part of my count is, if either a corrective structure or a starting motive one, the wave (iii) should be a rally away from the triangle. Isn't it? :)
timwest
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It's hard to make it work into a proper count to abide by all the rules. There is no extended wave (1.618 x's the next longest), so it isn't impulsive as shown. Maybe you could make your wave v at the bottom wave iii and we are in wave iv. That could work.... Then there would be an extended wave.
IvanLabrie
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@timwest, seems like Koryphaeen isn't using the neowave rules in his wave count. That explains this situation, it's very common.
And yes, EW is very hard!
@Koryphaeen, in my experience, traditional EWI school EW is too prone to lots of possible scenarios and highly subjective views. I still don't use EW to trade, since it's not too practical in my experience, specially after I started reading "Mastering Elliott Wave" by Glenn Neely...even then, Neowave is ahead in having very specific rules to arrive to only ONE possible correct wave count after enough information is obtained. You can't do this with EWI school.
Koryphaeen
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I can only agree with you, EW isn't an easy job because of the subjectivity involved. I didn't used EW in my trading either, I am learning it just now since it is a mandatory field for my CFTe exam that will follow.. I traded mostly structure based and advanced patterns, but in my opinion EW can be used very well to increase performance in trading advanced patterns, since with EW count one can very well select out a pattern that will not work well because the whole situation would not obey to EW rules... I will read the book of Neely as well to find out more about neowave :) Thanks!
Koryphaeen
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Yes indeed, there is a chance that I'm wrong with the counting and we are in wave iv now, your scenario you presented could work as well. I based my counting on looking back to previous behavior of this pair in similar situations and you really do not need to go back so far to see the similarities with my count. But as said, the version you suggested is plausible (although in this version wave 4 would be way larger than wave 2, but this breaks no rule), we will see how it unfolds tomorrow when the structure of the triangle will be broken into any direction.. Thank you for your thoughts, I really appreciated them! :)
Koryphaeen
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However, according to the rule of alternation in neowave "Wave 2 and wave 4 should alternate in as much ways as possible – Price, Time, Severity, Intricacy, Construction"... so it is quite possible that your suggestion will hold the line...
IvanLabrie
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I think it's possible, I noticed similar behavior in many dollar assets. It might be very ugly and hard to predict when it'll end too, if it's a 4th.
timwest
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You can avoid making wave 2's triangles (an error in EW) by making wave B an a-b-c. :-)