Before I start, I want to say thank you to the people who sent me kind words during the past week. I haven't had time to reply but I saw a few of them so thank you, it meant a lot. For those of you who didn't know, I had a pretty rough week. I was dealing with a family emergency and today was the first day I wasn't at the hospital all day. If anyone was wondering where I was, that was what happened.
I haven't had too much time to dissect the market, but it seems things were following what I said in my update. I told everyone not too get excited until the CME gap was filled for BTC which gapped up last weekend. Today the CME gap finally filled, so as long as we don't gap up again, the market should be in good shape.
There are some things that have the possibility to drag the market down and here it is:
Covid news (lockdowns, variants, etc). Evergrande payments (largest payment of 2.1B due March 23, 2022). FED bond tapering (updates coming on Dec 14th and 15th).
In terms of the market, the bull market should still be considered ongoing until proven otherwise by metrics. I expect many alts to bounce from the last gap close however I have not been able to keep up with anything this week so I cannot tell you which ones look the best. ADA broke out of its descending channel, and tested the previous diagonal resistance as support today. I hope BTC will trade sideways this weekend otherwise we will have another gap to worry about and that won't be fun. If BTC trades sideways, expect ADA to do the same. I believe there will be more upward movement if all goes well with BTC and we will form the basing pattern I have been talking about for a month and a half now. Other than that the market has been rather slow today, most people did not see the pullback coming however, I knew the gap would be filled one way or another. This happens to be the best scenario. If BTC continued to run, we would have a gap at 54k to worry about and its better to worry about it now than if BTC moves to 70K. That is all I have today. I need to follow up on a lot of things going on right now because I have been gone for the entire week. Thanks again everyone!
Komentar
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Hey everyone. A little update for everyone:
BTC should retest the bottom. That should be expected, however from there it should resume its upward movements. If you are heavily in alts and find yourself underwater because you bought in late, consider taking profit a bit more regularly or hedging your portfolio with BTC or ETH. These pullbacks occur rather often on the way to the top so keep that in mind. Thanks.
Sorry to hear about your family emergency, hope everything goes fine, about the market I am really positive about it... but we need to wait and see
mysticalwalrus
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@coolestcool, Thank you! I appreciate it. I am positive as well. The cycles are getting longer, so there is a lot of room to go up and down before ending up at an average of 100K for the cycle in terms of S2F model. I am planning on taking some profits prior to the evergrande payment, and the end of the tapering when they announce it. Covid does not scare me as much. If DEC does not do well, I will be more skeptical short term. But overall I am very positive for the outcome of the cycle.
h4rdw1r3d
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I’ve missed your analysis on ADA, and I’m sorry to hear about your family emergency. Thank you for sharing. Best wishes.
mysticalwalrus
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@h4rdw1r3d, Thanks my friend. Rough week. I will get some more charts out when I see some setups. I am still pretty behind on PA right now.
aliengmt04
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whats up with ada now...😫
ChinoGambino
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This didn’t age well
tkkbemll8
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Hello Sir. Sorry to hear about your family emergency. Hope everything is ok and doing better. I had to turn off my computer because it was hard to stomach the drop that occurred, but since I have checked back in I noticed that ETH/BTC actually surged after the drop. Ethereum really held up rather well itself. Do you think this pair could serve as a hedge to all the volatility until things get straightened out and we know the short term direction of the market? Wondering if anyone has noticed this or has any thoughts?
mysticalwalrus
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@tkkbemll8, Thank you. ETH/BTC is a great hedge. However, I do not see it going far past the last drop. I believe it will retest the last bottom and proceed with moving forward.
tkkbemll8
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@imnotgoodatall, Ok thanks. Also wanted you to verify hidden bullish divergence on BTC Daily Chart. I am looking at RSI, and the lows I am comparing are the September low and the current low.
Parsava
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The health of you and your loved ones is most important.